21 Rogers Ln

Remsenburg-Speonk, NY 11960

$2,399,000D-

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,978 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Pending · 448 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $15,268/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$12,581
• Tax + insurance: −$1,986
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,206
• Net cashflow: $-2,505/mo
• Annual: $-30,057/yr
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.47%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $671,720

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $2.40M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-30k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.96M (18.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.53M (36.4% below list).
• It's been on market 448 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.11M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.53M (36.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $204k of equity ($17k loan paydown + $187k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #389 of 755 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Remsenburg-Speonk Elementary School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 122 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 36% FRL vs 10% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $796k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$326k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 7.2% in Remsenburg-Speonk — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 448 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.