21 Rogers Ln · Remsenburg-Speonk, NY 11960

$2,399,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,978 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 448 Days on market

Built 2004 0.92 ac lot Est $2323k · at est. ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience quintessential Hamptons style in Remsenburg, at this coveted location just south of South Country Road. The custom estate was built in 2004, and is nestled on nearly an acre, offering 4,000+/- SF of living space. Curb appeal abounds with the charming covered front porch & cedar shingle exterior. The first floor boasts seamless flow from the double height, entry foyer to a formal living room, dining room, and an open great room with a stunning stone surround, wood-burning fireplace, and French doors leading to the expansive back deck and pool area. The chef's kitchen features custom wood cabinets, granite countertops, dual sinks, and top-of-the-line appliances including Sub

Key facts

• 0.92 acre lot
• Pool
• Built 2004

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $2.40M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-30k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.96M (18.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.53M (36.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.53M (36.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 7.2% in Remsenburg-Speonk — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #389 of 755 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Remsenburg-Speonk Elementary School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 122 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 36% FRL vs 10% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $204k of equity ($17k loan paydown + $187k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$326k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 448 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.11M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $796k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,526,848 (36.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 448 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.47%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $2,323,152
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 Rogers Ln	0.00mi	5/5.0	3,978 (0%)	1mo	$2,325,000	$584	87
50A S Phillips Ave	0.71mi	5/3.0	3,934 (-1%)	0mo	$1,900,000	$483	61
49 Tuthill Ln	0.45mi	5/4.5	3,900 (-2%)	8mo	$2,420,000	$621	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $798,438
• Equity at exit: $1,791,438

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.62×
• Total profit: $2,432,299
• Equity at exit: $3,526,684

Cash invested: $671,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11960

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,268 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$12,581
• Tax from tax record: −$987 /mo · $11,840/yr
• Insurance: −$1,000
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,206
• Net cashflow: $-2,505

Break-even live

Break-even rent $18,439

Max offer price $1,956,523

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $599,750
• Closing costs: $71,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29 Basket Neck Ln Remsenburg, NY	4.0	4.5	4759	$9,000	$1.89	3d	1	0.41mi
3 Pine Grove Ct Westhampton, NY	4.0	3.5	3500	$35,000	$10.00	22d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-03
   status Active
3. 2025-09-03
   price $2,399,000
4. 2025-07-03
   status Pending
5. 2025-04-07
   status Active
6. 2025-04-07
   price $2,595,000
7. 2024-09-22
   price $2,799,000
8. 2024-09-07
   price $2,950,000
9. 2024-07-15
   listed $3,195,000 Active
10. 2024-07-08
    historical
11. 2024-01-30
    listed $3,295,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,840 · $987/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $26,192 · $2,183/mo
• Expected delta: +$14,352/yr (+$1,196/mo · 121.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 51% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $183,222
• − Mortgage interest: −$134,381
• − Property taxes: −$11,840
• − Insurance: −$11,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,658
• − Management: −$14,658
• − Depreciation: −$69,789
• Taxable loss: −$74,099
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$17,784
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,273/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3624420
• Math proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $79,972
• Composite: 47.7/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #389 of 755 in NY

Livability — Remsenburg-Speonk

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Remsenburg-Speonk, NY
• City population: 1,346
• Population (ZIP): 1,037

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 9% Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.81%
• Current HPI: 386.454
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-27.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $2,399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-03 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-07 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-07 Price Changed $2,595,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-22 Price Changed $2,799,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-07 Price Changed $2,950,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-15 Listed $3,195,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-08 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-30 Listed $3,295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $11,840 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.