5107 County Road 469

Jones Creek, TX 77422

$160,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Active · 129 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,565/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$558
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $-161/mo
• Annual: $-1,927/yr
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.12%
• DSCR: 1.32
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-161 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (2.2% below list).
• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#633 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sweeny ISD (town): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #480 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 1.8% in Jones Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.