5107 County Road 469 · Jones Creek, TX 77422

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 129 Days on market

Built 2001 0.34 ac lot $102/sqft · 46% below area Est $295k · 46% under ↓ 11% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy the tranquil drive to this charming 1,568 square foot manufactured home on a concrete slab, boasting 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. As you arrive, you'll see a wide concrete driveway, an oversized 2-car garage, a workshop, and a 3-space carport, providing ample parking space for several vehicles. This well-kept abode offers glimpses of the San Benard River, complemented by vaulted ceilings and an indoor laundry room for added convenience. Step outside to discover a wooden deck out front and a partially fenced backyard. The property has several shade trees, a palm tree, plus a delightful peach tree that bears sweet fruit. Among its unique features are a detached "hot tub room" and raised garden beds, awaiting TLC to restore their splendor. Additionally, the shipping container in the backyard is available for purchase or can be removed by the owner before closing. Experience the peace and tranquility of this inviting retreat, where relaxation and natural beauty converge seamlessly.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2001

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-161 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 1.8% in Jones Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#633 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sweeny ISD (town): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #480 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,633 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.12%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,000
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -45.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $77,115
• Equity at exit: $144,141

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.26×
• Total profit: $235,537
• Equity at exit: $310,845

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77422

• Home prices YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,565 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $775/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $-161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,768

Max offer price $131,633

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $160,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $160,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 109 DOM
17. 2026-04-28
    price $160,000 1007-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1007 chars)

    Enjoy the tranquil drive to this charming 1,568 square foot manufactured home on a concrete slab, boasting 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. As you arrive, you'll see a wide concrete driveway, an oversized 2-car garage, a workshop, and a 3-space carport, providing ample parking space for several vehicles. This well-kept abode offers glimpses of the San Benard River, complemented by vaulted ceilings and an indoor laundry room for added convenience. Step outside to discover a wooden deck out front and a partially fenced backyard. The property has several shade trees, a palm tree, plus a delightful peach tree that bears sweet fruit. Among its unique features are a detached "hot tub room" and raised garden beds, awaiting TLC to restore their splendor. Additionally, the shipping container in the backyard is available for purchase or can be removed by the owner before closing. Experience the peace and tranquility of this inviting retreat, where relaxation and natural beauty converge seamlessly.

18. 2026-02-10
    listed $165,000 Active 1007-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1007 chars)

    Enjoy the tranquil drive to this charming 1,568 square foot manufactured home on a concrete slab, boasting 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. As you arrive, you'll see a wide concrete driveway, an oversized 2-car garage, a workshop, and a 3-space carport, providing ample parking space for several vehicles. This well-kept abode offers glimpses of the San Benard River, complemented by vaulted ceilings and an indoor laundry room for added convenience. Step outside to discover a wooden deck out front and a partially fenced backyard. The property has several shade trees, a palm tree, plus a delightful peach tree that bears sweet fruit. Among its unique features are a detached "hot tub room" and raised garden beds, awaiting TLC to restore their splendor. Additionally, the shipping container in the backyard is available for purchase or can be removed by the owner before closing. Experience the peace and tranquility of this inviting retreat, where relaxation and natural beauty converge seamlessly.

19. 2026-02-10
    historical

    Show marketing remark (1007 chars)

    Enjoy the tranquil drive to this charming 1,568 square foot manufactured home on a concrete slab, boasting 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. As you arrive, you'll see a wide concrete driveway, an oversized 2-car garage, a workshop, and a 3-space carport, providing ample parking space for several vehicles. This well-kept abode offers glimpses of the San Benard River, complemented by vaulted ceilings and an indoor laundry room for added convenience. Step outside to discover a wooden deck out front and a partially fenced backyard. The property has several shade trees, a palm tree, plus a delightful peach tree that bears sweet fruit. Among its unique features are a detached "hot tub room" and raised garden beds, awaiting TLC to restore their splendor. Additionally, the shipping container in the backyard is available for purchase or can be removed by the owner before closing. Experience the peace and tranquility of this inviting retreat, where relaxation and natural beauty converge seamlessly.

20. 2025-08-15
    listed $170,000 Active
21. 2025-08-14
    historical
22. 2025-01-10
    listed $170,000 Active
23. 2025-01-10
    historical
24. 2024-05-26
    price $170,000
25. 2024-04-01
    listed $175,000 Active
26. 2024-03-30
    historical
27. 2023-09-15
    historical
28. 2023-02-20
    price $159,995
29. 2022-05-03
    price $169,995
30. 2022-03-14
    listed $180,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $775 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,928 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,153/yr (+$179/mo · 277.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥116°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,778
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$775
• − Insurance: −$5,918
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,502
• − Management: −$1,502
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$4,536
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,089
• After-tax cash flow: $-838/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sweeny ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841970
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $53,607
• Composite: 31.49/100
• National rank: #5975
• State rank: #480 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jones Creek

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #633
• US rank: #12077

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 14,548

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.41%
• Current HPI: 296.0632
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-15 Listed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-10 Listed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-26 Price Changed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-01 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-30 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2023-09-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-02-20 Price Changed $159,995 HARMLS
• 2022-05-03 Price Changed $169,995 HARMLS
• 2022-03-14 Listed $180,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $775 · -73.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.