2931 SE 12th Rd Unit 205-55

Homestead, FL 33035

$175,900C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 815 sqft · Built 2004 · Townhouse · Active · 111 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,870/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$922
• Tax + insurance: −$360
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $195/mo
• Annual: $2,344/yr
• Cap rate: 8.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.38%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $49,252

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $176k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $195 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $176k).
• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#158 in FL, #2,408 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gateway Environmental K-8 Learning Center (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,943 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 1,355 students, 74% FRL); Homestead Middle School (math 23% / reading 25%, grade F, #532 of 571 statewide, top 94%, 666 students, 81% FRL); Homestead Senior High School (math 24% / reading 23%, grade F, #533 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 2,020 students, 74% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Miami-Dade average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.2%/yr); 643 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $176k implies a 171% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.5% in Homestead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Crowdsourced image shows significant overgrowth and lack of maintenance.
• Major: interior walls — Listing photo shows bare walls with no paint or wallpaper.
• Major: landscaping — Crowdsourced image shows overgrown vegetation and a lack of landscaping.
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — No systems visible in the provided images, suggesting they may be outdated or non-existent.
• Major: interior flooring — No flooring visible in the provided images, suggesting it may be in poor condition or missing.
• Major: interior walls/paint — Listing photo shows bare walls with no paint or wallpaper.