124 Auriesville Rd

Tribes Hill, NY 12072

$249,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,436 sqft · Built 1890 · SingleFamily · Active · 114 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,232/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax + insurance: −$364
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $-696/mo
• Annual: $-8,353/yr
• Cap rate: 2.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.98%
• DSCR: 0.47
• 1% rule: 0.49%
• Cash to close: $69,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $249k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-696 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (49.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (50.5% below list).
• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (50.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#814 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, cost of living A; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Fonda-Fultonville Central School District (rural): math 52% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #228 of 590 in NY (top 39%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 210 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (168 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?