124 Auriesville Rd · Tribes Hill, NY 12072

$249,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,436 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 112 Days on market

Built 1890 0.30 ac lot $173/sqft · 33% below area Est $373k · 33% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Cash flow +4.0/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

OPEN HOUSE - THURSDAY APRIL 23RD FROM 5PM TO 7PM. This isn't just a Home, it's a lifestyle upgrade. Where mornings start with fresh air, birds chirping, room to breathe, space to live, your private slice of paradise awaits within this Charming 3 Bedroom Home (could be used as a 4 Bedroom) with 1.5 baths in a nice Country Setting in the Town of Glen. Enjoy the attached 1 car garage and the extra detached garage, with shed area behind it. Nice yard (0.30 +/- of an Acre). Low Taxes only $3,120 annually with No exemptions. This home has been well maintained and offers to you a move-in-condition home with some excellent features. There is a large ceramic farmhouse style Kitchen sink, wood working fireplace off the living room, new central air unit in 2025, new hot water tank in 2024, paved driveway, a lot of closets and storage space within the home, and a clean functional basement that houses the oil hot air furnace and oil tank within, and has access with both an entry from the Kitchen and attached Garage. Sellers estimate the roof to be about 10 years old. Septic was pumped in 2024. Close proximity to NYS Thruway exits 27 & 28, Route 30A, Route 161, and Route 5s. Come check this one out for yourself before it is gone! GREAT HOME, GREAT LOCATION, GREAT PRICE AND LOW TAXES! Sellers are even willing to include remaining household furnishings if a buyer has use for them, except for the curio cabinet & buffet stand in the dining room.

Key facts

• Attached garage
• New central air unit
• Detached garage

Tags

• ATTACHED GARAGE
• DETACHED GARAGE
• VINTAGE METAL KITCHEN CABINETS
• CERAMIC STYLE FARMHOUSE SINK
• WOOD WORKING FIREPLACE
• NEW CENTRAL AIR UNIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-696 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (49.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (50.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (50.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#814 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, cost of living A; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Fonda-Fultonville Central School District (rural): math 52% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #228 of 590 in NY (top 39%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 210 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (168 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $123,213 (50.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.49% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.98%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 16.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $372,769
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -33.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $91,264
• Equity at exit: $224,319

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.35×
• Total profit: $303,597
• Equity at exit: $483,752

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12072

• Home prices YoY: 17.1%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 16.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,232 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,119/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $-696

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,113

Max offer price $126,032

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $249,000 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,000 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-04-21
    price $249,000 1459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1459 chars)

    OPEN HOUSE - THURSDAY APRIL 23RD FROM 5PM TO 7PM. This isn't just a Home, it's a lifestyle upgrade. Where mornings start with fresh air, birds chirping, room to breathe, space to live, your private slice of paradise awaits within this Charming 3 Bedroom Home (could be used as a 4 Bedroom) with 1.5 baths in a nice Country Setting in the Town of Glen. Enjoy the attached 1 car garage and the extra detached garage, with shed area behind it. Nice yard (0.30 +/- of an Acre). Low Taxes only $3,120 annually with No exemptions. This home has been well maintained and offers to you a move-in-condition home with some excellent features. There is a large ceramic farmhouse style Kitchen sink, wood working fireplace off the living room, new central air unit in 2025, new hot water tank in 2024, paved driveway, a lot of closets and storage space within the home, and a clean functional basement that houses the oil hot air furnace and oil tank within, and has access with both an entry from the Kitchen and attached Garage. Sellers estimate the roof to be about 10 years old. Septic was pumped in 2024. Close proximity to NYS Thruway exits 27 & 28, Route 30A, Route 161, and Route 5s. Come check this one out for yourself before it is gone! GREAT HOME, GREAT LOCATION, GREAT PRICE AND LOW TAXES! Sellers are even willing to include remaining household furnishings if a buyer has use for them, except for the curio cabinet & buffet stand in the dining room.

16. 2026-03-19
    price $259,000 1459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1459 chars)

    OPEN HOUSE - THURSDAY APRIL 23RD FROM 5PM TO 7PM. This isn't just a Home, it's a lifestyle upgrade. Where mornings start with fresh air, birds chirping, room to breathe, space to live, your private slice of paradise awaits within this Charming 3 Bedroom Home (could be used as a 4 Bedroom) with 1.5 baths in a nice Country Setting in the Town of Glen. Enjoy the attached 1 car garage and the extra detached garage, with shed area behind it. Nice yard (0.30 +/- of an Acre). Low Taxes only $3,120 annually with No exemptions. This home has been well maintained and offers to you a move-in-condition home with some excellent features. There is a large ceramic farmhouse style Kitchen sink, wood working fireplace off the living room, new central air unit in 2025, new hot water tank in 2024, paved driveway, a lot of closets and storage space within the home, and a clean functional basement that houses the oil hot air furnace and oil tank within, and has access with both an entry from the Kitchen and attached Garage. Sellers estimate the roof to be about 10 years old. Septic was pumped in 2024. Close proximity to NYS Thruway exits 27 & 28, Route 30A, Route 161, and Route 5s. Come check this one out for yourself before it is gone! GREAT HOME, GREAT LOCATION, GREAT PRICE AND LOW TAXES! Sellers are even willing to include remaining household furnishings if a buyer has use for them, except for the curio cabinet & buffet stand in the dining room.

17. 2026-02-26
    listed $269,000 Active 1459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1459 chars)

    OPEN HOUSE - THURSDAY APRIL 23RD FROM 5PM TO 7PM. This isn't just a Home, it's a lifestyle upgrade. Where mornings start with fresh air, birds chirping, room to breathe, space to live, your private slice of paradise awaits within this Charming 3 Bedroom Home (could be used as a 4 Bedroom) with 1.5 baths in a nice Country Setting in the Town of Glen. Enjoy the attached 1 car garage and the extra detached garage, with shed area behind it. Nice yard (0.30 +/- of an Acre). Low Taxes only $3,120 annually with No exemptions. This home has been well maintained and offers to you a move-in-condition home with some excellent features. There is a large ceramic farmhouse style Kitchen sink, wood working fireplace off the living room, new central air unit in 2025, new hot water tank in 2024, paved driveway, a lot of closets and storage space within the home, and a clean functional basement that houses the oil hot air furnace and oil tank within, and has access with both an entry from the Kitchen and attached Garage. Sellers estimate the roof to be about 10 years old. Septic was pumped in 2024. Close proximity to NYS Thruway exits 27 & 28, Route 30A, Route 161, and Route 5s. Come check this one out for yourself before it is gone! GREAT HOME, GREAT LOCATION, GREAT PRICE AND LOW TAXES! Sellers are even willing to include remaining household furnishings if a buyer has use for them, except for the curio cabinet & buffet stand in the dining room.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,119 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,664 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$544/yr (+$45/mo · 17.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,786
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,119
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,183
• − Management: −$1,183
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$13,136
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,153
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,201/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fonda-Fultonville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611190
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 14.00%
• Median HH income: $53,979
• Composite: 51.81/100
• National rank: #1668
• State rank: #228 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tribes Hill

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #814
• US rank: #15754

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 361
• Population (ZIP): 3,019

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,683 people
• By 2030: 47,785 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 45,492 · -6.6%
• By 2050: 43,161 · -11.3%
• By 2075: 38,134 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 32,337 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Iranian 5% Polish 5%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · German/W. Germanic 17% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.7) · D 35.6% · R 64.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: -8.1pp · 2024: -28.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.7 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+26.5 2012: R+4.4 2008: R+8.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 51.01%
• Current HPI: 349.6624
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $249,000 Global MLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $259,000 Global MLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $269,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,119 · +12.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.