0 Clifty Creek Rd

Lewisburg, KY 42256

$29,900B

2 bd · None ba · 576 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Active · 111 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $790/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$166
• Net cashflow: $418/mo
• Annual: $5,014/yr
• Cap rate: 23.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.89%
• DSCR: 3.66
• 1% rule: 2.64%
• Cash to close: $8,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $30k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $418 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($790 rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($27k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $27k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $218 of equity ($207 loan paydown + $11 appreciation (0.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#295 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Logan County (rural): math 35% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #32 of 165 in KY (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Logan County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (0.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — No visible roof in photos
• Major: exterior siding — Red paint peeling
• Major: interior flooring — Exposed subfloor, missing flooring
• Major: interior walls — Structural damage, debris