14859 Seminole Trl

Seminole, FL 33776

$440,000D-

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,174 sqft · Built 1998 · Condo · Pending · 173 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,759/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax + insurance: −$535
• HOA: −$410
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$789
• Net cashflow: $-283/mo
• Annual: $-3,400/yr
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.76%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $123,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath condo listed at $440k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-283 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $390k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $376k (14.6% below list).
• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $376k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#5 in FL, #174 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oakhurst Elementary School (math 72% / reading 68%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 664 students, 38% FRL); Seminole Middle School (math 55% / reading 53%, grade B-, #196 of 571 statewide, top 36%, 824 students, 49% FRL); Richard O Jacobson Technical High School At Seminole (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C-, #154 of 667 statewide, top 24%, 578 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $320k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.6% in Seminole — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?