14859 Seminole Trl · Seminole, FL 33776

$440,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,174 sqft · Condo public records · 173 Days on market

Built 1998 $410/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WATERFRONT LIVING… Three level townhome with over 2,100 square feet of living space located in highly desirable Tara Cay North. Enjoy the view from all THREE levels! The master retreat is located on the top floor with vaulted ceilings, 2 walk-in closets, en-suite bath and a private screened-in balcony. The 2nd bedroom also has an en-suite bathroom with another private sitting area. Laundry closet off the 3rd floor bedrooms. The Second level features an updated kitchen with granite counters and stainless steel appliances. First floor is a perfect mother-in-law style suite (currently used as a game room) with a 22x15 bonus room and a private balcony with water views from the dock just steps away. This area leads into an oversized 1 car garage with tons of storage throughout. Additional upgrades include plantation shutters and a water purification/filtration system. From the bottom floor, you're a short walk away from a series of docks that are ideal for kayaking, paddleboarding, or pulling your boat up for the weekend. Tara Cay North enjoys a low $285/month HOA which includes a HEATED community pool, 10 community docks, water, sewer, trash, internet, and basic cable!! Tara Cay is a pet friendly community, HOA allows for 2 large dogs and has lots of green space for walking. Tara Cay North also features first come first serve docks (48 hour limit).

Key facts

• Screened patio
• One car garage
• Waterfront townhome

Tags

• WATERFRONT TOWNHOME
• ONE CAR GARAGE
• WATER CONDITIONING SYSTEM
• CENTRAL VACUUM SYSTEM
• SCREENED PATIO
• PRIVATE DOCK

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total monthly association fees $410; total annual fees $4,920; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA $410 (includes common area taxes, escrow reserves, internet, grounds maintenance, pool, private road maintenance, sewer, trash, water); HOA management: Wise Property Mgmt; Pool on site; Sidewalks and street lights; Pets allowed; Association approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; BB/HS internet available; Cable available; Phone service available
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Three or more stories; Faces west
• Construction: Block and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.03-acre lot
• Exterior features: Balcony; Dog run; Exterior lighting; Sidewalks; On waterfront (saltwater canal); Canal access with seawall (concrete); Fishing pier; No-wake zone

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Ice maker; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Water softener; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Central vacuum; Crown molding; Open floorplan with living/dining combo; Solid surface counters; Split bedroom layout; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Laundry located inside on upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath condo listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-383/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $434k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $408k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $387k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.6% in Seminole — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#5 in FL, #174 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oakhurst Elementary School (math 72% / reading 68%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 664 students, 38% FRL); Seminole Middle School (math 55% / reading 53%, grade B-, #196 of 571 statewide, top 36%, 824 students, 49% FRL); Richard O Jacobson Technical High School At Seminole (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C-, #154 of 667 statewide, top 24%, 578 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $320k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $387,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.31%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-73,138
• Equity at exit: $65,605

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-65,522
• Equity at exit: $38,043

Cash invested: $123,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33776

• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,077 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax from tax record: −$352 /mo · $4,223/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$410
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$856
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,117

Max offer price $434,369

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $217	-5% $93	+0% $-32	+5% $-156	+10% $-281
Rent	-10% $-354	-5% $-193	+0% $-32	+5% $129	+10% $290
Rate	-1.0pp $190	-0.5pp $80	base $-32	+0.5pp $-146	+1.0pp $-262

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,000
• Closing costs: $13,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9794 Indian Key Trl Unit 90 Seminole, FL	4.0	4.0	2174	$3,650	$1.68	26d	1	0.17mi
9614 Tara Cay Ct Seminole, FL	4.0	4.0	2100	$2,850	$1.36	22d	1	0.22mi
19829 Gulf Blvd Indian Shores, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$3,350	$2.39	9d	1	0.36mi
9652 Commodore Dr Seminole, FL	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,800	$1.67	12d	1	0.37mi
19646 Gulf Blvd #3 Indian Shores, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,975	$1.86	26d	1	0.57mi
14623 Sunset Dr Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1621	$2,545	$1.57	6d	1	0.59mi
14414 91st Ave Seminole, FL	3.0	2.5	2083	$8,000	$3.84	26d	1	0.65mi
9262 140th Ln Seminole, FL	2.0	2.0	1402	$4,500	$3.21	6d	1	0.69mi
13964 106th Ave Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	2281	$3,500	$1.53	26d	1	0.73mi
19505 Gulf Blvd #304 Indian Shores, FL	4.0	2.5	2388	$15,000	$6.28	6d	1	0.87mi
11290 142nd St Largo, FL	4.0	2.0	2268	$4,550	$2.01	6d	1	0.91mi
13607 101st Ter Seminole, FL	2.0	2.0	1503	$3,850	$2.56	6d	1	0.92mi
14323 83rd Pl N Unit 1471180P Seminole, FL	4.0	3.0	2895	$13,452	$4.65	23d	1	1.07mi
19138 Whispering Pines Dr Indian Shores, FL	4.0	3.0	2424	$8,000	$3.30	26d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $410 · $4,920/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashinternetcablepool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-10
   historical
3. 2026-02-25
   price $440,000
4. 2026-01-07
   price $454,000
5. 2025-11-18
   listed $459,000 Active
6. 2025-02-13
   price $499,000
7. 2025-01-30
   listed $525,000 Active
8. 2020-05-21
   soldstatus $320,000
9. 2020-05-15
   soldstatus $320,000 Sold 1373-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1373 chars)

   WATERFRONT LIVING… Three level townhome with over 2,100 square feet of living space located in highly desirable Tara Cay North. Enjoy the view from all THREE levels! The master retreat is located on the top floor with vaulted ceilings, 2 walk-in closets, en-suite bath and a private screened-in balcony. The 2nd bedroom also has an en-suite bathroom with another private sitting area. Laundry closet off the 3rd floor bedrooms. The Second level features an updated kitchen with granite counters and stainless steel appliances. First floor is a perfect mother-in-law style suite (currently used as a game room) with a 22x15 bonus room and a private balcony with water views from the dock just steps away. This area leads into an oversized 1 car garage with tons of storage throughout. Additional upgrades include plantation shutters and a water purification/filtration system. From the bottom floor, you're a short walk away from a series of docks that are ideal for kayaking, paddleboarding, or pulling your boat up for the weekend. Tara Cay North enjoys a low $285/month HOA which includes a HEATED community pool, 10 community docks, water, sewer, trash, internet, and basic cable!! Tara Cay is a pet friendly community, HOA allows for 2 large dogs and has lots of green space for walking. Tara Cay North also features first come first serve docks (48 hour limit).

10. 2020-04-02
    status Pending 1373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1373 chars)

    WATERFRONT LIVING… Three level townhome with over 2,100 square feet of living space located in highly desirable Tara Cay North. Enjoy the view from all THREE levels! The master retreat is located on the top floor with vaulted ceilings, 2 walk-in closets, en-suite bath and a private screened-in balcony. The 2nd bedroom also has an en-suite bathroom with another private sitting area. Laundry closet off the 3rd floor bedrooms. The Second level features an updated kitchen with granite counters and stainless steel appliances. First floor is a perfect mother-in-law style suite (currently used as a game room) with a 22x15 bonus room and a private balcony with water views from the dock just steps away. This area leads into an oversized 1 car garage with tons of storage throughout. Additional upgrades include plantation shutters and a water purification/filtration system. From the bottom floor, you're a short walk away from a series of docks that are ideal for kayaking, paddleboarding, or pulling your boat up for the weekend. Tara Cay North enjoys a low $285/month HOA which includes a HEATED community pool, 10 community docks, water, sewer, trash, internet, and basic cable!! Tara Cay is a pet friendly community, HOA allows for 2 large dogs and has lots of green space for walking. Tara Cay North also features first come first serve docks (48 hour limit).

11. 2020-02-27
    listed $320,000 Active 1373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1373 chars)

    WATERFRONT LIVING… Three level townhome with over 2,100 square feet of living space located in highly desirable Tara Cay North. Enjoy the view from all THREE levels! The master retreat is located on the top floor with vaulted ceilings, 2 walk-in closets, en-suite bath and a private screened-in balcony. The 2nd bedroom also has an en-suite bathroom with another private sitting area. Laundry closet off the 3rd floor bedrooms. The Second level features an updated kitchen with granite counters and stainless steel appliances. First floor is a perfect mother-in-law style suite (currently used as a game room) with a 22x15 bonus room and a private balcony with water views from the dock just steps away. This area leads into an oversized 1 car garage with tons of storage throughout. Additional upgrades include plantation shutters and a water purification/filtration system. From the bottom floor, you're a short walk away from a series of docks that are ideal for kayaking, paddleboarding, or pulling your boat up for the weekend. Tara Cay North enjoys a low $285/month HOA which includes a HEATED community pool, 10 community docks, water, sewer, trash, internet, and basic cable!! Tara Cay is a pet friendly community, HOA allows for 2 large dogs and has lots of green space for walking. Tara Cay North also features first come first serve docks (48 hour limit).

12. 2009-04-07
    soldstatus $225,000
13. 2009-03-25
    soldstatus $225,000
14. 2008-11-12
    listed $225,000
15. 1998-06-18
    soldstatus $154,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,223 · $352/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,223 · $352/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 55% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,923
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,647
• − Property taxes: −$4,223
• − Insurance: −$2,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,914
• − Management: −$3,914
• − HOA: −$4,920
• − Depreciation: −$12,800
• Taxable loss: −$7,694
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,847
• After-tax cash flow: $1,464/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Seminole

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #174

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 42,315
• Population (ZIP): 12,711

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -455.42%
• Current HPI: 337.3149
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+185.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $440,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $454,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-18 Listed $459,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-13 Price Changed $499,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-30 Listed $525,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $320,000 Public Records
• 2020-05-15 Sold (MLS) $320,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-27 Listed $320,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2009-03-25 Sold (MLS) $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-11-12 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $154,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,223 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.