1311 Bullis Rd

Elma Center, NY 14059

$284,900D+

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,547 sqft · Built 1951 · SingleFamily · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,409/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax + insurance: −$453
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-44/mo
• Annual: $-525/yr
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.66%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $79,772

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $285k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-525/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (15.4% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $241k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#626 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Iroquois Central School District (rural): math 57% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #178 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Elma Primary School (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #675 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 287 students, 16% FRL); Iroquois Middle School (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C+, #241 of 729 statewide, top 35%, 450 students, 21% FRL); Iroquois Senior High School (math 98% / reading 98%, grade A+, #19 of 1,100 statewide, top 4%, 663 students, 20% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $285k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.5% in Elma Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.