1311 Bullis Rd · Elma Center, NY 14059

$284,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,547 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1951 2.40 ac lot Est $394k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Got toys? Take a look at this lovely 4 bdrm, 1.5 bath ranch style home sitting on 2.4 acres. This property backs up over 1400' to Buffalo Creek. This home features newer vinyl insulated siding 2016. Garage roof full tear off 2016. Concrete, steps and landing has floating wooden ramp - seller will remove if buyer so chooses. A/C 2014, furnace 2009. Master bedroom has 1/2 bath - also features sliding glass door to 12x11 deck with excellent view to yard. Wood burning fireplace NRTC, full dry basement, drain tile done 2010. Use your imagination, with your own touches and enjoy the "country setting". Easy access to 400.

Key facts

• Oversized main bath
• Highly rated schools
• High demand location

Tags

• HIGH DEMAND LOCATION
• LOW TAXES
• HIGHLY RATED SCHOOLS
• OPEN FLOW LIVING AREA
• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• OVERSIZED MAIN BATH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with electricity and workshop space; Garage door opener; Approximately 1.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Septic tank; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing construction; Asphalt roof; Rectangular lot; Road frontage on a main thoroughfare; River/stream access to Buffalo Creek
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Copper and PEX plumbing; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Gravel driveway; Deck; Patio; Fence (partial); Barn(s), outbuilding, poultry coop, shed(s) and storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Refrigerator; Appliances negotiable
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms (dimensions: 12 x 12, 16 x 11, 10 x 12)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Hardwood; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom and one half bathroom (two main-level bathrooms total)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Sliding doors; Breakfast bar; Ceiling fan(s); Formal dining room; Formal living room; Bedroom on main level; Accessible full bath; Accessible bedroom; Low-threshold shower; No stairs; Accessible approach with ramp; Accessible doors; Accessible entrance
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Main-level laundry with accessible utilities

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-525/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.5% in Elma Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#626 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Iroquois Central School District (rural): math 57% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #178 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $285k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $240,900 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.66%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $394,485
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
130 Winspear Rd	0.61mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,372 (-11%)	11mo	$350,000	$255	39
441 Winspear Rd	0.62mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,751 (+13%)	15mo	$300,000	$171	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-48,930
• Equity at exit: $42,480

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-46,103
• Equity at exit: $24,633

Cash invested: $79,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14059

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,409 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax from tax record: −$334 /mo · $4,009/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,464

Max offer price $277,171

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $118	-5% $37	+0% $-44	+5% $-124	+10% $-205
Rent	-10% $-234	-5% $-139	+0% $-44	+5% $51	+10% $147
Rate	-1.0pp $100	-0.5pp $29	base $-44	+0.5pp $-118	+1.0pp $-193

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,225
• Closing costs: $8,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2852 Transit Rd Buffalo, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1070	$2,409	$2.25	3d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $284,900 Pending 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $284,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $284,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $284,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $284,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $284,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $284,900 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-08
   listed $284,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,009 · $334/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,412 · $368/mo
• Expected delta: +$403/yr (+$34/mo · 10.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥92°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,959
• − Property taxes: −$4,009
• − Insurance: −$1,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,313
• − Management: −$2,313
• − Depreciation: −$8,288
• Taxable loss: −$5,398
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,296
• After-tax cash flow: $770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Iroquois Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615360
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $74,111
• Composite: 55.41/100
• National rank: #1251
• State rank: #178 of 590 in NY

Livability — Elma Center

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #626
• US rank: #11395

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 9,413
• Population (ZIP): 9,413

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 28% Slovak 3% Danish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.15%
• Current HPI: 326.3228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+72.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $284,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-12-29 Sold (MLS) $175,000 WNYREIS
• 2016-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2016-10-28 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2016-10-20 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2016-10-11 Listed $165,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,009 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.