6855 W Tadpole Cir

Meadow Lakes, AK 99623

$1,595,000D+

144 bd · 144.0 ba · 7,372 sqft · Built 2025 · MultiFamily · Active · 246 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $16,368/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,364
• Tax + insurance: −$2,658
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,437
• Net cashflow: $1,908/mo
• Annual: $22,896/yr
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.13%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $446,600

Investor read

• This is a 12 × 1-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $1.59M. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive. Per door: $159/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $1.59M).
• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.40M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.40M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $48k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#187 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.2% in Meadow Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $16,368/mo this rent would consume 221% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 285% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?