6855 W Tadpole Cir · Meadow Lakes, AK 99623

$1,595,000

144 bd · 144.0 ba · 7,372 sqft · MultiFamily · 246 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 0.92 ac lot $216/sqft · 32% above area Est $1205k · 32% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 12 units. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Looking to invest in your future and receive passive income for years to come. This newly designed 12 unit plan. Each unit has 1 bedroom, 1 full bath with in-unit laundry. Enjoy 5-star in-floor radiant heat, beautiful solid wood cabinets, quartz counter tops and spacious open-concept living area with LVP throughout. All units individually metered.

Key facts

• 0.92 acre lot
• 12 parking spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 12 × 1-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $1.59M. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive. Per door: $159/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $1.59M).
• Recommended offer: $1.40M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.2% in Meadow Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#187 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $16,368/mo this rent would consume 221% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 285% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $48k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.40M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $1,403,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.13%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,205,342
• List price: $1,595,000
• Delta: 32.33%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-133,883
• Equity at exit: $237,820

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $52,449
• Equity at exit: $137,906

Cash invested: $446,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99623

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 97.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $16,368 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,364
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,994 /mo · $23,925/yr
• Insurance: −$665
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,437
• Net cashflow: $1,908

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,953

Max offer price $1,595,000

Occupancy floor 83%

12-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 12× units	1	1	$16,368
Total (12 units)			$16,368

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $398,750
• Closing costs: $47,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 246 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 245 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 244 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 243 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 240 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 238 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 237 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 236 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 235 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 231 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 230 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 229 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 228 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 227 DOM
16. 2025-10-16
    price $1,595,000 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    Looking to invest in your future and receive passive income for years to come. This newly designed 12 unit plan. Each unit has 1 bedroom, 1 full bath with in-unit laundry. Enjoy 5-star in-floor radiant heat, beautiful solid wood cabinets, quartz counter tops and spacious open-concept living area with LVP throughout. All units individually metered.

17. 2025-10-15
    listed $1,150,000 Active 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    Looking to invest in your future and receive passive income for years to come. This newly designed 12 unit plan. Each unit has 1 bedroom, 1 full bath with in-unit laundry. Enjoy 5-star in-floor radiant heat, beautiful solid wood cabinets, quartz counter tops and spacious open-concept living area with LVP throughout. All units individually metered.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $196,416
• − Mortgage interest: −$89,345
• − Property taxes: −$23,925
• − Insurance: −$7,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$15,713
• − Management: −$15,713
• − Depreciation: −$46,400
• Taxable loss: −$2,655
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$637
• After-tax cash flow: $23,534/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This newly designed multi-family property is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers high ROI with its 5-star in-floor radiant heat, spacious living areas, and individual unit metering, making it an excellent investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Maintains fresh appearance
• Both Window cleaning — Keeps exterior looking pristine

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Maintains fresh appearance ↑
• Both Window cleaning — Keeps exterior looking pristine ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Meadow Lakes

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #24629

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Meadow Lakes, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• City population: 23,424
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 23,424
• Household income: $88,799
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 285.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 10% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.82%
• Current HPI: 200.2242
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+38.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $1,595,000 AKMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listed $1,150,000 AKMLS