Timberhill A Plan

Woodfin, NC 28804

$271,463F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,709 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 811 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,268/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,568
• Tax + insurance: −$816
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-1,593/mo
• Annual: $-19,116/yr
• Cap rate: 2.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.94%
• DSCR: 0.38
• 1% rule: 0.46%
• Cash to close: $137,135

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $271k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (16.5% below list).
• It's been on market 811 days — a 12% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $227k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#538 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Buncombe County Schools (suburban): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #72 of 178 in NC (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Weaverville Elementary (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #179 of 1,410 statewide, top 14%, 303 students, 48% FRL); North Buncombe Middle (math 63% / reading 59%, grade B+, #40 of 475 statewide, top 9%, 504 students, 45% FRL); North Buncombe High (math 67% / reading 65%, grade B, #154 of 535 statewide, top 29%, 956 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 63% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Buncombe County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 511 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 35d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,305 units permitted in Buncombe County in 2024 (1,855 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Buncombe County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 811 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.