2471 W Main St

Barstow, CA 92311

$195,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · Built 1947 · SingleFamily · Active · 105 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,666/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $65/mo
• Annual: $781/yr
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.43%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($781/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (14.6% below list).
• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $167k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#444 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Barstow Unified (town): math 11% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #482 of 517 in CA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 343 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.6% in Barstow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.