2471 W Main St · Barstow, CA 92311

$195,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1947 0.33 ac lot $141/sqft · 27% below area Est $266k · 27% under ↓ 34% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A 4 Bedroom Single Story Home (fixer upper) of approximately 1,380 sq of living space in approx 14,250sq of land. Attached parcel of approximately 45,302sq land can be sold together. Home includes Roof-top Solar system.

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• Built 1947
• Listed 105 days

Tags

• ROOF-TOP SOLAR SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($781/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.6% in Barstow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#444 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Barstow Unified (town): math 11% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #482 of 517 in CA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 343 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,623 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.43%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $266,421
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -26.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-28,618
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-24,302
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92311

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 343
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,666 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,768/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,584

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34465 J St Barstow, CA	3.0	2.0	1258	$2,200	$1.75	43d	1	1.29mi
1411 Nancy St Barstow, CA	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,399	$1.30	43d	1	1.45mi
1400 Nancy St Barstow, CA	3.0	1.0	1041	$1,595	$1.53	24d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-03-05
    listed $195,000 Active 219-char remark

    Show marketing remark (219 chars)

    A 4 Bedroom Single Story Home (fixer upper) of approximately 1,380 sq of living space in approx 14,250sq of land. Attached parcel of approximately 45,302sq land can be sold together. Home includes Roof-top Solar system.

16. 2025-12-31
    historical
17. 2025-04-14
    price $249,000
18. 2025-01-14
    listed $295,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,768 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,768 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,995
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,768
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,600
• − Management: −$1,600
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$2,544
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$610
• After-tax cash flow: $1,392/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barstow Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604020
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,505
• Composite: 14.44/100
• National rank: #9430
• State rank: #482 of 517 in CA

Livability — Barstow

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #444
• US rank: #15099

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barstow, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 33,954
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,954
• Household income: $61,862
• Rent vs Own: 50.0% rent · 50.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1305.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 29% Two or more races 22% Black 15% Native American 3% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.26%
• Current HPI: 316.4858
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.32%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-33.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $195,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-04-14 Price Changed $249,000 CRMLS
• 2025-01-14 Listed $295,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,768 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.