209 S Prairie Ave

Petrolia, TX 76377

$150,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,248 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Active · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,276/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $65/mo
• Annual: $776/yr
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.85%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($776/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (14.9% below list).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,101 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Petrolia CISD (rural): math 28% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #489 of 826 in TX (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clay County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.