209 S Prairie Ave · Petrolia, TX 76377

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1959 $67/sqft · 6% below area Est $159k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special in Petrolia. This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers great potential and TONS of possibilities! Lots of SPACE! Nice size living/dining area. 2nd living area and Kitchen has an abundance of cabinet space and breakfast bar. Primary bath has walk in closet and hall bath features a jacuzzi tub. Large utility room. To be SOLD AS-IS.

Key facts

• Walk in closet
• Breakfast bar
• Jacuzzi tub

Tags

• ABUNDANCE OF CABINET SPACE
• BREAKFAST BAR
• WALK IN CLOSET
• JACUZZI TUB
• LARGE UTILITY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($776/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,101 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Petrolia CISD (rural): math 28% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #489 of 826 in TX (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Clay County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,609 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.85%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,150
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -5.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $22,148
• Equity at exit: $67,446

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $73,048
• Equity at exit: $103,943

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76377

• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,276 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,132/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,194

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $150	-5% $107	+0% $65	+5% $22	+10% $-20
Rent	-10% $-36	-5% $14	+0% $65	+5% $115	+10% $165
Rate	-1.0pp $140	-0.5pp $103	base $65	+0.5pp $26	+1.0pp $-14

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $150,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-04-20
    listed $150,000 Active 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    Investor special in Petrolia. This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers great potential and TONS of possibilities! Lots of SPACE! Nice size living/dining area. 2nd living area and Kitchen has an abundance of cabinet space and breakfast bar. Primary bath has walk in closet and hall bath features a jacuzzi tub. Large utility room. To be SOLD AS-IS.

18. 2016-04-12
    soldstatus 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    Property sold in its “AS-IS, WHERE-IS” condition. Seller does not prorate taxes. Buyer pays all closing costs including, but not limited to any and all transfer taxes, title, legal, and recording fees. 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath located in Petrolia, TX. The ceiling needs to be repaired and the interior walls need work. Fresh paint needed throughout. Some broken windows need to be replaced and all kitchen appliances are needed. Has a fenced in back yard. Other repairs may be necessary before move in ready.

19. 2015-12-17
    listed $14,900 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    Property sold in its “AS-IS, WHERE-IS” condition. Seller does not prorate taxes. Buyer pays all closing costs including, but not limited to any and all transfer taxes, title, legal, and recording fees. 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath located in Petrolia, TX. The ceiling needs to be repaired and the interior walls need work. Fresh paint needed throughout. Some broken windows need to be replaced and all kitchen appliances are needed. Has a fenced in back yard. Other repairs may be necessary before move in ready.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,132 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,613/yr (+$134/mo · 142.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,313
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,132
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,225
• − Management: −$1,225
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$1,785
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$428
• After-tax cash flow: $1,204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Petrolia CISD
• NCES district ID: 4834710
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,921
• Composite: 31.11/100
• National rank: #6071
• State rank: #489 of 826 in TX

Livability — Petrolia

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1101
• US rank: #19475

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Petrolia, TX
• Population (ZIP): 470

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,537 people
• By 2030: 9,042 · -5.2%
• By 2040: 8,090 · -15.2%
• By 2050: 7,255 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 5,834 · -38.8%
• By 2100: 4,491 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+79.7) · D 9.9% · R 89.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.1pp toward R · 2008: -58.6pp · 2024: -79.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+79.7 2020: R+77.6 2016: R+76.6 2012: R+69.7 2008: R+58.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+906.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $150,000 WFAOR
• 2016-04-12 Sold (MLS) — WFAOR
• 2015-12-17 Listed $14,900 WFAOR

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,132 · -12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.