8578 S Ice House Canyon Rd

Icehouse Canyon, AZ 85501

$345,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 608 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 218 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,079/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax + insurance: −$296
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $-1,252/mo
• Annual: $-15,026/yr
• Cap rate: 2.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.71%
• DSCR: 0.35
• 1% rule: 0.31%
• Cash to close: $96,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $345k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (64.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (68.7% below list).
• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (68.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#285 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Globe Unified District (4208) (town): math 11% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #206 of 249 in AZ (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $68/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 69% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?