8578 S Ice House Canyon Rd · Icehouse Canyon, AZ 85501

$345,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 608 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 218 Days on market

Built 1950 2.46 ac lot $567/sqft · 148% above area Est $458k · 25% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Cash flow +2.6/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Huge Price Reduction!! Ranch-Style Retreat on 2.49 Acres '' Guest House & Private Pool! Escape to your own private oasis with this spacious ranch-style home perfectly situated on 2.49 acres of serene countryside. Enjoy panoramic mountain views from nearly every angle, offering peace, privacy, and natural beauty.The main home features a comfortable, single-level layout with plenty of room to relax and entertain. Step outside to your sparkling private swimming pool-perfect for warm summer days-and a fantastic guest house ideal for visitors, extended family, or potential rental income.Whether you're sipping coffee on the patio, hosting poolside gatherings, or watching the sunset over the mountains, this property delivers the perfect blend of comfort, function, and breathtaking scenery.

Key facts

• Private pool
• Guest house
• Serene countryside

Tags

• GUEST HOUSE
• PRIVATE POOL
• PANORAMIC MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• SPACIOUS RANCH STYLE HOME
• SERENE COUNTRYSIDE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (64.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (68.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (68.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#285 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Globe Unified District (4208) (town): math 11% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #206 of 249 in AZ (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $68/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $107,946 (68.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 69% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.31% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.71%
• DSCR: 0.35
• GRM: 26.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $457,588
• List price: $345,000
• Delta: -24.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -46.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.41×
• Total profit: $-135,810
• Equity at exit: $51,441

10-year hold

• IRR: -88.1%
• Equity multiple: -1.29×
• Total profit: $-221,582
• Equity at exit: $29,829

Cash invested: $96,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85501

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 26.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,079 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,009/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$68 /mo · $814/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $-1,252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,664

Max offer price $123,804

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,250
• Closing costs: $10,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $345,000 Active 218 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $345,000 Active 217 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $345,000 Active 216 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $345,000 Active 215 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $345,000 Active 214 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $345,000 Active 212 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $345,000 Active 211 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $359,000 Active 208 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $359,000 Active 207 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $359,000 Active 206 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $359,000 Active 204 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $359,000 Active 202 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $359,000 Active 201 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $359,000 Active 200 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $359,000 Active 199 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $359,000 Active 198 DOM
17. 2026-02-17
    price $397,000 797-char remark

    Show marketing remark (797 chars)

    Huge Price Reduction!! Ranch-Style Retreat on 2.49 Acres '' Guest House & Private Pool! Escape to your own private oasis with this spacious ranch-style home perfectly situated on 2.49 acres of serene countryside. Enjoy panoramic mountain views from nearly every angle, offering peace, privacy, and natural beauty.The main home features a comfortable, single-level layout with plenty of room to relax and entertain. Step outside to your sparkling private swimming pool-perfect for warm summer days-and a fantastic guest house ideal for visitors, extended family, or potential rental income.Whether you're sipping coffee on the patio, hosting poolside gatherings, or watching the sunset over the mountains, this property delivers the perfect blend of comfort, function, and breathtaking scenery.

18. 2025-11-03
    listed $437,500 Active 797-char remark

    Show marketing remark (797 chars)

    Huge Price Reduction!! Ranch-Style Retreat on 2.49 Acres '' Guest House & Private Pool! Escape to your own private oasis with this spacious ranch-style home perfectly situated on 2.49 acres of serene countryside. Enjoy panoramic mountain views from nearly every angle, offering peace, privacy, and natural beauty.The main home features a comfortable, single-level layout with plenty of room to relax and entertain. Step outside to your sparkling private swimming pool-perfect for warm summer days-and a fantastic guest house ideal for visitors, extended family, or potential rental income.Whether you're sipping coffee on the patio, hosting poolside gatherings, or watching the sunset over the mountains, this property delivers the perfect blend of comfort, function, and breathtaking scenery.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,009 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,277 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,268/yr (+$106/mo · 125.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone D · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,954
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,325
• − Property taxes: −$1,009
• − Insurance: −$2,539
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,036
• − Management: −$1,036
• − Depreciation: −$10,036
• Taxable loss: −$22,029
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,287
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,739/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Globe Unified District (4208)
• NCES district ID: 0403500
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,829
• Composite: 13.87/100
• National rank: #9485
• State rank: #206 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Icehouse Canyon

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #24355

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Icehouse Canyon, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 12,353

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 16% Native American 5% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.96%
• Current HPI: 296.458
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-9.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $397,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-03 Listed $437,500 ARMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,009 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.