1415 S Bertelsen Rd #96

Eugene, OR 97402

$120,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 2017 · Manufactured · Pending · 294 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,035/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $823/mo
• Annual: $9,870/yr
• Cap rate: 14.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.38%
• DSCR: 2.31
• 1% rule: 1.70%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $823 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 294 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#52 in OR, #1,587 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, cost of living C-, crime D-.
• Eugene SD 4J (urban): math 45% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #10 of 58 in OR (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cesar Chavez Elementary School (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #404 of 412 statewide, top 100%, 364 students, 63% FRL); Roosevelt Middle School (math 77% / reading 82%, grade A+, #3 of 128 statewide, top 2%, 543 students, 41% FRL); Churchill High School (math 50% / reading 70%, grade C+, #23 of 143 statewide, top 19%, 1,082 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 37% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 303 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 2.8% in Eugene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 294 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.