1415 S Bertelsen Rd #96 · Eugene, OR 97402

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 294 Days on market

Built 2017 Est $110k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• ARV discount +3.3/15.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to unit 96! This beautiful home offers a 3 bdrm, 2 bath. 1248 sqft. Huge master bathroom with double vanity. Every room has a walk-in closet. Newer tuff shed in driveway.

Key facts

• Extra storage space
• New interior paint
• Community pool

Tags

• NEW INTERIOR PAINT
• WRAP-AROUND FENCED YARD
• EXTRA STORAGE SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $823 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 2.8% in Eugene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#52 in OR, #1,587 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, cost of living C-, crime D-.
• Eugene SD 4J (urban): math 45% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #10 of 58 in OR (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cesar Chavez Elementary School (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #404 of 412 statewide, top 100%, 364 students, 63% FRL); Roosevelt Middle School (math 77% / reading 82%, grade A+, #3 of 128 statewide, top 2%, 543 students, 41% FRL); Churchill High School (math 50% / reading 70%, grade C+, #23 of 143 statewide, top 19%, 1,082 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 37% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 302 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 294 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 294 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.38%
• DSCR: 2.31
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $109,824
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1415 S Bertelsen Rd #96	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	1mo	$110,000	$88	100
1415 S Bertelsen Rd #108	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-5%)	1mo	$110,000	$93	91
1415 S Bertelsen Rd #143	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	2mo	$90,000	$72	90
1415 S Bertelsen Rd #112	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,119 (-10%)	5mo	$86,606	$77	79
1415 S Bertelsen Rd #122	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-14%)	18mo	$96,000	$89	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $30,077
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $82,225
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97402

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,035 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $823

Break-even live

Break-even rent $994

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $890	-5% $856	+0% $823	+5% $789	+10% $755
Rent	-10% $662	-5% $742	+0% $823	+5% $903	+10% $983
Rate	-1.0pp $883	-0.5pp $853	base $823	+0.5pp $791	+1.0pp $760

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3959 Pam St Eugene, OR	3.0	2.0	1256	$2,200	$1.75	14d	1	0.08mi
4110 Henry Ct Eugene, OR	2.0	2.0	920	$1,350	$1.47	45d	1	0.30mi
4120 Henry Ct Eugene, OR	2.0	2.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	45d	1	0.32mi
3655 W 13th Ave Eugene, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$2,290	$2.16	14d	17	0.40mi
1455 Bailey Hill Rd Eugene, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	753	$1,670	$2.22	14d	1	0.57mi
1355 Quaker St Eugene, OR	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,950	$1.93	45d	1	0.81mi
2556 Royalann Ln Unit A Eugene, OR	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,395	$2.00	45d	1	0.95mi
4841 W 18th Ave Eugene, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	984	$1,995	$2.03	14d	21	0.99mi
2800 Sunnyview Ln Eugene, OR	2.0	2.0	1089	$1,852	$1.70	14d	7	1.00mi
29774 Willow Creek Rd Eugene, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1141	$2,539	$2.22	14d	77	1.03mi
1780 Oak Patch Rd Eugene, OR	2.0	1.5	1156	$1,750	$1.51	14d	1	1.12mi
1612 Fetters Loop Eugene, OR	2.0	1.5	1118	$1,695	$1.52	45d	1	1.17mi
128 Chase St Eugene, OR	2.0	1.5	1378	$1,895	$1.38	45d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-05
   price $120,000
3. 2025-11-17
   price $129,000
4. 2025-08-27
   price $139,000
5. 2025-06-27
   listed $146,000 Active
6. 2023-09-05
   soldstatus $110,000 Closed 183-char remark

   Show marketing remark (183 chars)

   Welcome home to unit 96! This beautiful home offers a 3 bdrm, 2 bath. 1248 sqft. Huge master bathroom with double vanity. Every room has a walk-in closet. Newer tuff shed in driveway.

7. 2023-08-18
   status Pending 183-char remark

   Show marketing remark (183 chars)

   Welcome home to unit 96! This beautiful home offers a 3 bdrm, 2 bath. 1248 sqft. Huge master bathroom with double vanity. Every room has a walk-in closet. Newer tuff shed in driveway.

8. 2023-08-14
   listed $110,000 Active 183-char remark

   Show marketing remark (183 chars)

   Welcome home to unit 96! This beautiful home offers a 3 bdrm, 2 bath. 1248 sqft. Huge master bathroom with double vanity. Every room has a walk-in closet. Newer tuff shed in driveway.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,275 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,275 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,426
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,954
• − Management: −$1,954
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $8,430
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,023
• After-tax cash flow: $7,847/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eugene SD 4J
• NCES district ID: 4104740
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,688
• Composite: 42.15/100
• National rank: #3302
• State rank: #10 of 58 in OR

Livability — Eugene

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #1587

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime D- Employment C- Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Eugene, OR
• County: Lane County · 310,476 people
• City population: 215,212
• Metro: Eugene-Springfield, OR
• Population (ZIP): 53,823
• Household income: $57,658
• Rent vs Own: 49.3% rent · 50.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 3142.0

Population outlook (Lane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 391,933 people
• By 2030: 405,860 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 429,386 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 452,016 · +15.3%
• By 2075: 508,825 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 531,208 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 11% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lane

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.1) · D 60.0% · R 36.9% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.4pp · 2024: 23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.1 2020: D+24.3 2016: D+18.9 2012: D+23.4 2008: D+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -437.20%
• Current HPI: 298.1167
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.58%
• Metro: Eugene-Springfield, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+9.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $120,000 RMLS
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $129,000 RMLS
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $139,000 RMLS
• 2025-06-27 Listed $146,000 RMLS
• 2023-09-05 Sold (MLS) $110,000 RMLS
• 2023-08-18 Pending — RMLS
• 2023-08-14 Listed $110,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,275 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.