20420 Lafayette Rd #11

Burlington, WA 98233

$50,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 560 sqft · Built 1964 · Manufactured · Active · 148 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,770/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $1,029/mo
• Annual: $12,348/yr
• Cap rate: 32.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 93.90%
• DSCR: 5.18
• 1% rule: 3.54%
• Cash to close: $14,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#65 in WA, #1,168 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D.
• Burlington-Edison School District (suburban): math 32% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #229 of 291 in WA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 91 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 561 units permitted in Skagit County in 2024 (270 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Skagit County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 32.6% vs local median 2.2% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.