20420 Lafayette Rd #11 · Burlington, WA 98233

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 148 Days on market

Built 1964 ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to a cozy and well-located 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home offering comfort and convenience. This inviting home features an open-concept living room and kitchen, creating a functional layout that feels warm and welcoming. Enjoy the ease of ample parking with two driveways. Located with quick access to Highway 20, this home makes commuting simple while keeping you close to local amenities, shopping, and dining.

Key facts

• Ample parking
• Parking
• Built 1964

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• AMPLE PARKING
• QUICK ACCESS TO HIGHWAY 20
• CLOSE TO LOCAL AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 32.6% vs local median 2.2% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#65 in WA, #1,168 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D.
• Burlington-Edison School District (suburban): math 32% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #229 of 291 in WA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 91 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 561 units permitted in Skagit County in 2024 (270 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Skagit County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 93.90%
• DSCR: 5.18
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 92.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.58×
• Total profit: $64,061
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 96.5%
• Equity multiple: 13.10×
• Total profit: $169,420
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98233

• Home prices YoY: -12.0%
• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,770 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $234/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $1,029

Break-even live

Break-even rent $467

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
529 E Fairhaven Ave Unit 3 Burlington, WA	1.0	1.0	540	$1,500	$2.78	44d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $50,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $50,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $50,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $50,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $50,000 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $50,000 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-03-18
   price $55,000
8. 2026-01-30
   price $59,000
9. 2026-01-07
   listed $65,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $234 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $490 · $41/mo
• Expected delta: +$256/yr (+$21/mo · 109.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,235
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$234
• − Insurance: −$1,048
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,699
• − Management: −$1,699
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $12,301
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,952
• After-tax cash flow: $9,396/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burlington-Edison School District
• NCES district ID: 5300780
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $59,128
• Composite: 35.41/100
• National rank: #9782
• State rank: #229 of 291 in WA

Livability — Burlington

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #65
• US rank: #1168

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Skagit County · 118,108 people
• City population: 17,850
• Metro: Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
• Population (ZIP): 17,850
• Household income: $87,614
• Rent vs Own: 40.6% rent · 59.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 716.0

Population outlook (Skagit County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 131,498 people
• By 2030: 135,556 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 141,717 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 145,714 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 152,201 · +15.7%
• By 2100: 147,980 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 8% Asian 2% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Guatemala, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Skagit

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 52.9% · R 44.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+7.5 2016: D+3.2 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.46%
• Current HPI: 392.5216
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.57%
• Metro: Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-15.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $55,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $59,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Listed $65,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $234 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.