3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,196 sqft ·
Built 1958
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 142 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,625/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$955
Tax + insurance
−$226
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$341
Net cashflow
$102/mo
Annual
$1,230/yr
Cap rate
6.97%
Cash-on-cash
2.41%
DSCR
1.11
1% rule
0.89%
Cash to close
$51,004
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $182k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (10.8% below list).
It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $160k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#82 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Parker Road Elementary (354 students, 99% FRL); Mccluer North High (math 5% / reading 28%, grade F, #487 of 521 statewide, top 93%, 1,136 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 70% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Current owner paid $90k; list at $182k implies a 101% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $51k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-TR4C2J8K1PCPD4
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29