13826 Northlake Dr

Houston, TX 77049

$149,900C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,311/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $42/mo
• Annual: $500/yr
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.19%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($500/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (12.5% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Galena Park ISD (suburban): math 32% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #578 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Purple Sage El (math 30% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 451 students, 94% FRL); Cunningham Middle (math 29% / reading 35%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 928 students, 89% FRL); North Shore Senior High (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 4,569 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 74% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 157 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.