13826 Northlake Dr · Houston, TX 77049

$149,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1983 3,463 sqft lot $140/sqft · 14% below area Est $174k · 14% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home, this is a beutiful2 bedroom and 2 bath one story home, open floor plan, spacious living room, come and check out this charming home.

Key facts

• 3,463 sq ft lot
• Built 1983
• Listed 13 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 1983; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Additional bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room; Total of 4 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($500/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Galena Park ISD (suburban): math 32% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #578 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Purple Sage El (math 30% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 451 students, 94% FRL); Cunningham Middle (math 29% / reading 35%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 928 students, 89% FRL); North Shore Senior High (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 4,569 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 74% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 157 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,121 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.19%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,848
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -13.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13826 Northlake Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,072 (0%)	0mo	$149,900	$140	100
13839 Northlake Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,072 (0%)	14mo	$149,900	$140	82
14114 Dartwood Dr	0.20mi	2/2.5	1,103 (+3%)	3mo	$185,000	$168	81
14214 Dartwood Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,072 (0%)	1mo	$140,000	$131	78
13735 Northlake Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,072 (0%)	22mo	$179,900	$168	74
6506 Lodgepole Rd	0.45mi	2/1.0	1,087 (+1%)	0mo	$160,000	$147	72
14222 Nordic Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,076 (+0%)	16mo	$160,000	$149	65
6502 Foxfern Cir	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-3%)	11mo	$199,900	$192	64
14323 Edenglen Dr	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,042 (-3%)	4mo	$160,000	$154	62
6311 Hollow Pines Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,191 (+11%)	14mo	$193,000	$162	61
6214 Perch Creek Dr	0.52mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,023 (-5%)	21mo	$189,900	$186	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.2% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-13,857
• Equity at exit: $34,721

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-12,718
• Equity at exit: $35,227

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77049

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,311 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,748/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,258

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5830 S Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 3165 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1203	$1,512	$1.26	3d	1	0.21mi
5830 S Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	863	$1,089	$1.26	4d	1	0.21mi
5830 S Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 2165 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	863	$1,081	$1.25	3d	1	0.21mi
5830 S Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 5887 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	863	$1,113	$1.29	10d	1	0.28mi
5830 S Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 5863 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1203	$1,544	$1.28	10d	1	0.28mi
5830 S Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1203	$1,555	$1.29	11d	1	0.36mi
6415 S Lake Houston Pkwy Unit Plan C Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,225	$1.25	43d	1	0.50mi
5836 S Lake Houston Pkwy Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1052	$1,289	$1.23	22d	1	0.51mi
5836 S Lake Houston Pkwy Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	954	$1,094	$1.15	18d	1	0.51mi
5836 S Lake Houston Pkwy Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1052	$1,289	$1.23	43d	1	0.51mi
13311 Danshire Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,699	$1.24	3d	1	0.67mi
19 Normandy St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1383	$1,525	$1.10	43d	1	0.70mi
5675 Purple Sage Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	782	$1,129	$1.44	3d	18	0.71mi
14340 Wallisville Rd Unit 14377 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	940	$1,414	$1.50	10d	1	0.76mi
14340 Wallisville Rd Unit 425 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	940	$1,382	$1.47	3d	1	0.76mi
14340 Wallisville Rd Unit 14397 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	936	$1,410	$1.51	43d	1	0.76mi
14340 Wallisville Rd Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	940	$1,390	$1.48	5d	1	0.77mi
14340 Wallisville Rd Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	940	$1,382	$1.47	3d	1	0.77mi
14340 Wallisville Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	940	$1,425	$1.52	11d	1	0.77mi
14346 Wallisville Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	936	$1,360	$1.45	43d	1	0.78mi
14445 Wallisville Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	659	$1,210	$1.83	1d	10	0.84mi
14630 Edenglen Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,500	$1.22	24d	1	0.93mi
5921 Uvalde Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,141	$1.43	24d	1	1.21mi
5915 Uvalde Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	779	$1,098	$1.41	2d	13	1.21mi
13502 N Thorntree Dr Unit 425 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	766	$963	$1.26	10d	1	1.29mi
13502 N Thorntree Dr Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	766	$939	$1.23	5d	1	1.29mi
206 Spinwood Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	860	$1,040	$1.21	43d	1	1.34mi
8 Uvalde Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,000	$0.89	43d	1	1.35mi
12955 Woodforest Blvd Unit 305 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	728	$975	$1.34	24d	1	1.42mi
90 Uvalde Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	868	$1,347	$1.55	1d	20	1.43mi
12905 Woodforest Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	886	$1,098	$1.24	20d	2	1.45mi
12800 Woodforest Blvd Unit 12857 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$1,126	$1.32	3d	1	1.45mi
12800 Woodforest Blvd Unit 12833 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,366	$1.14	3d	1	1.45mi
456 Normandy St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	734	$1,099	$1.50	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 612-char remark
2. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 612-char remark
3. 2026-05-01
   listed $149,900 Active 612-char remark
4. 2026-04-28
   historical $149,900 612-char remark
5. 2022-05-23
   soldstatus
6. 2022-05-20
   soldstatus Sold 146-char remark

   Show marketing remark (146 chars)

   Welcome home, this is a beutiful2 bedroom and 2 bath one story home, open floor plan, spacious living room, come and check out this charming home.

7. 2022-04-18
   status Pending 146-char remark

   Show marketing remark (146 chars)

   Welcome home, this is a beutiful2 bedroom and 2 bath one story home, open floor plan, spacious living room, come and check out this charming home.

8. 2022-02-05
   listed $145,000 Active 146-char remark

   Show marketing remark (146 chars)

   Welcome home, this is a beutiful2 bedroom and 2 bath one story home, open floor plan, spacious living room, come and check out this charming home.

9. 2021-06-16
   soldstatus
10. 2021-05-31
    historical
11. 2021-05-02
    listed $115,000 Active
12. 2020-09-23
    historical
13. 2020-09-10
    listed $117,000 Active
14. 2020-09-03
    soldstatus
15. 2020-08-27
    soldstatus
16. 2006-11-30
    historical
17. 2006-05-02
    listed $74,500
18. 2005-09-16
    historical
19. 2005-07-16
    listed $78,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,748 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$996/yr (+$83/mo · 57.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,735
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,748
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,259
• − Management: −$1,259
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$2,038
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$489
• After-tax cash flow: $989/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galena Park ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820250
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $43,158
• Composite: 27.62/100
• National rank: #6927
• State rank: #578 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 40,418
• Household income: $62,971
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 993.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 32% Black 19% White 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 43% English-only · Spanish 54% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Current HPI: 248.1111
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+92.2% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-06-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Coming Soon $149,900 HARMLS
• 2022-05-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-20 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-04-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-02-05 Listed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2021-06-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-05-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-05-02 Listed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2020-09-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-09-10 Listed $117,000 HARMLS
• 2020-09-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-08-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-11-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-05-02 Listed $74,500 HARMLS
• 2005-09-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-07-16 Listed $78,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,748 · +14.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.