1307 15th St

Santa Monica, CA 90404

$3,850,000B-

12 bd · 19.0 ba · 8,398 sqft · Built 1958 · MultiFamily · Active · 381 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $47,786/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$20,190
• Tax + insurance: −$4,325
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$10,035
• Net cashflow: $13,236/mo
• Annual: $158,831/yr
• Cap rate: 10.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.73%
• DSCR: 1.66
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $1,078,000

Investor read

• This is a 11 × 12-bed/19.0-bath units multifamily listed at $3.85M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13k ($159k/yr) — positive. Per door: $1k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($48k rent vs $3.85M).
• It's been on market 381 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.39M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $3.39M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $27k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $116k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#178 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Santa Monica-Malibu Unified (urban): math 61% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #123 of 1,400 in CA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 66 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.81M; list at $3.85M implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 1.2% in Santa Monica — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $47,786/mo this rent would consume 603% of the median local household income ($95k/yr) (locally 1828% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 381 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?