1307 15th St · Santa Monica, CA 90404

$3,850,000

12 bd · 19.0 ba · 8,398 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 381 Days on market

Built 1958 7,500 sqft lot $458/sqft · 8% above area Est $3571k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• ARV discount +4.0/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Appreciation +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 11 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

11-Unit Apartment for sale in desirable Santa Monica neighborhood! North of Santa Monica Blvd. , across the street from the Santa Monica UCLA Hospital and related medical buildngs. Strong unit mix with market rents reported by owner. Pride of Ownership shows

Key facts

• 7,500 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1958

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 11 × 12-bed/19.0-bath units multifamily listed at $3.85M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14k ($162k/yr) — positive. Per door: $1k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($48k rent vs $3.85M).
• Recommended offer: $3.39M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 1.2% in Santa Monica — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#178 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Santa Monica-Malibu Unified (urban): math 61% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #123 of 1,400 in CA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 66 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $48,159/mo this rent would consume 607% of the median local household income ($95k/yr) (locally 1828% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $27k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $116k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 381 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.39M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.81M; list at $3.85M implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $3,388,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 381 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.06%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $3,570,507
• List price: $3,850,000
• Delta: 7.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1131 17th St	0.26mi	12/17.0	8,946 (+6%)	6mo	$2,630,000	$294	64
827 18th St	0.65mi	13/13.0 (+1)	8,406 (+0%)	2mo	$2,826,000	$336	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $98,951
• Equity at exit: $574,048

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $658,088
• Equity at exit: $332,878

Cash invested: $1,078,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 90404

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 73.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $48,159 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$20,190
• Tax from tax record: −$2,721 /mo · $32,653/yr
• Insurance: −$1,604
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$10,113
• Net cashflow: $13,531

Break-even live

Break-even rent $31,032

Max offer price $3,850,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $15,710	-5% $14,620	+0% $13,531	+5% $12,441	+10% $11,351
Rent	-10% $9,726	-5% $11,628	+0% $13,531	+5% $15,433	+10% $17,335
Rate	-1.0pp $15,469	-0.5pp $14,510	base $13,531	+0.5pp $12,533	+1.0pp $11,518

11-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 11× units	12	19	$48,158
Total (11 units)			$48,159

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $962,500
• Closing costs: $115,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $3,850,000 Active 381 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $3,850,000 Active 380 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $3,850,000 Active 379 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,850,000 Active 378 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,850,000 Active 376 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,850,000 Active 375 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $3,850,000 Active 372 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $3,850,000 Active 371 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $3,850,000 Active 370 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $3,850,000 Active 367 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $3,850,000 Active 366 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $3,850,000 Active 365 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $3,850,000 Active 364 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $3,850,000 Active 363 DOM
15. 2026-02-27
    price $3,850,000 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    11-Unit Apartment for sale in desirable Santa Monica neighborhood! North of Santa Monica Blvd. , across the street from the Santa Monica UCLA Hospital and related medical buildngs. Strong unit mix with market rents reported by owner. Pride of Ownership shows

16. 2025-11-21
    price $3,950,000 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    11-Unit Apartment for sale in desirable Santa Monica neighborhood! North of Santa Monica Blvd. , across the street from the Santa Monica UCLA Hospital and related medical buildngs. Strong unit mix with market rents reported by owner. Pride of Ownership shows

17. 2025-06-02
    listed $4,000,000 Active 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    11-Unit Apartment for sale in desirable Santa Monica neighborhood! North of Santa Monica Blvd. , across the street from the Santa Monica UCLA Hospital and related medical buildngs. Strong unit mix with market rents reported by owner. Pride of Ownership shows

18. 2011-11-10
    historical Withdrawn
19. 2011-08-11
    listed Active
20. 2011-08-11
    historical Expired
21. 2011-05-07
    price
22. 2010-12-10
    price
23. 2010-08-26
    listed Active
24. 2008-12-01
    historical
25. 2008-02-01
    listed
26. 2005-03-09
    soldstatus $1,811,000
27. 2005-02-17
    historical
28. 2004-11-03
    listed $1,475,000
29. 1984-05-18
    soldstatus $375,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $32,653 · $2,721/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $32,653 · $2,721/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥83°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $577,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$215,660
• − Property taxes: −$32,653
• − Insurance: −$19,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$46,233
• − Management: −$46,233
• − Depreciation: −$112,000
• Taxable income: $105,880
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$25,411
• After-tax cash flow: $136,956/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Monica-Malibu Unified
• NCES district ID: 0635700
• Math proficiency: 61% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $81,489
• Composite: 61.58/100
• National rank: #1535
• State rank: #123 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Monica

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #178
• US rank: #5878

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Monica, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 93,581
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 22,978
• Household income: $95,139
• Rent vs Own: 78.6% rent · 21.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1828.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 17% Asian 11% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 5% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.36%
• Current HPI: 376.4711
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.06%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+926.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $3,850,000 TheMLS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $3,950,000 TheMLS
• 2025-06-02 Listed $4,000,000 TheMLS
• 2011-11-10 Delisted — TheMLS
• 2011-08-11 Listed — TheMLS
• 2011-08-11 Delisted — TheMLS
• 2011-05-07 Price Changed — TheMLS
• 2010-12-10 Price Changed — TheMLS
• 2010-08-26 Listed — TheMLS
• 2008-12-01 Delisted — TheMLS
• 2008-02-01 Listed — TheMLS
• 2005-03-09 Sold (MLS) $1,811,000 TheMLS
• 2005-02-17 Delisted — TheMLS
• 2004-11-03 Listed $1,475,000 TheMLS
• 1984-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $32,653 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.