8160 W Serena Dr

Arizona City, AZ 85123

$329,000F

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,964 sqft · Built 2002 · MultiFamily · Active · 607 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,035/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax + insurance: −$347
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-465/mo
• Annual: $-5,580/yr
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.43%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $92,120

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2.0-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $329k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-465 ($-6k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-232/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (25.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (38.1% below list).
• It's been on market 607 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $204k (38.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#246 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Casa Grande Union High School (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #217 of 381 statewide, top 57%, 2,132 students, 52% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 311 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $329k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.2% in Arizona City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 607 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?