8160 W Serena Dr · Arizona City, AZ 85123

$329,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,964 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 607 Days on market

Built 2002

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.3/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Duplex for sale in the great Pinal County, this piece of real estate has been well maintained. Currently tenant occupied, Each Unit has a 2 bedroom, 2 bathrooms, breakfast bar, 1 car garage. Back yards fenced. Both units have tenants.

Key facts

• Breakfast bar
• Back yards fenced
• Garage

Tags

• BREAKFAST BAR
• BACK YARDS FENCED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community features: See remarks

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces total; 1 covered parking space; 2 open parking spaces; Paved parking and on-street parking available
• Utilities: Electric service by APS; Public sewer; Private water source
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Wood frame and stucco construction; Composition roof; 1 building on the property
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; Lot dimensions approximately 300 x 91 x 300 x 91

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Unit includes 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Unit includes 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2.0-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $329k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-455 ($-5k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-227/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (24.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (37.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (37.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.2% in Arizona City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#246 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Casa Grande Union High School (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #217 of 381 statewide, top 57%, 2,132 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 311 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 607 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $329k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,800 (37.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 607 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.29%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-82,367
• Equity at exit: $49,055

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-109,393
• Equity at exit: $28,446

Cash invested: $92,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85123

• Home prices YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 26.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,048 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,021/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-455

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,624

Max offer price $248,670

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-268	-5% $-362	+0% $-455	+5% $-548	+10% $-641
Rent	-10% $-617	-5% $-536	+0% $-455	+5% $-374	+10% $-293
Rate	-1.0pp $-289	-0.5pp $-371	base $-455	+0.5pp $-540	+1.0pp $-627

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2.0	2	$2,048
Total (2 units)			$2,048

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,250
• Closing costs: $9,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9105 W Raven Dr Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,500	$1.21	11d	1	0.65mi
9301 W Century Dr Unit A (273) Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,450	$0.97	6d	1	0.94mi
13971 S Rosemont Rd Unit 2 (479) Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.5	1260	$1,350	$1.07	6d	1	1.00mi
10153 W Wenden Dr Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	2069	$1,775	$0.86	6d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $329,000 Active 607 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,000 Active 604 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,000 Active 603 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,000 Active 602 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,000 Active 601 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,000 Active 599 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,000 Active 598 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,000 Active 595 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $329,000 Active 594 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $329,000 Active 593 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $329,000 Active 590 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $329,000 Active 589 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,000 Active 588 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,000 Active 587 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,000 Active 586 DOM
16. 2025-10-06
    status Active
17. 2025-07-18
    price $329,000
18. 2025-07-17
    status Active
19. 2025-07-17
    historical
20. 2025-07-03
    historical
21. 2025-01-17
    price $335,000
22. 2024-07-19
    listed $340,000 Active
23. 2019-09-16
    status Active
24. 2019-09-16
    historical
25. 2019-08-28
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
26. 2019-03-12
    listed $145,000 Active
27. 2002-08-28
    soldstatus $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,021 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,171 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,151/yr (+$96/mo · 112.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,576
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,429
• − Property taxes: −$1,021
• − Insurance: −$3,148
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,966
• − Management: −$1,966
• − Depreciation: −$9,571
• Taxable loss: −$11,524
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,766
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,691/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Arizona City

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #246
• US rank: #22768

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arizona City, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 10,003
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 10,003
• Household income: $69,137
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.30%
• Current HPI: 283.5405
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+163.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-06 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $329,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-07-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-01-17 Price Changed $335,000 ARMLS
• 2024-07-19 Listed $340,000 ARMLS
• 2019-09-16 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2019-09-16 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2019-08-28 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2019-03-12 Listed $145,000 ARMLS
• 2002-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,021 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.