4312 Seneca Hollow Rd

Elliston, VA 24087

$239,950C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,217 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,884/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax + insurance: −$279
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-49/mo
• Annual: $-594/yr
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.30%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $67,186

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-594/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (21.5% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $188k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#342 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Montgomery County Public School District (urban): math 57% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #47 of 131 in VA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Eastern Montgomery Elementary (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 385 students, 76% FRL); Shawsville Middle (math 41% / reading 56%, grade C-, #244 of 342 statewide, top 72%, 208 students, 74% FRL); Eastern Montgomery High (math 72% / reading 77%, grade B+, #107 of 319 statewide, top 37%, 282 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 32% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 323 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.