4312 Seneca Hollow Rd · Elliston, VA 24087

$239,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,217 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1957 1.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming brick ranch sitting on a 1.4 acre lot has been completely remodeled and is move in ready! Enjoy peaceful living with views of nature from every window. This home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a brand new beautifully updated kitchen with stainless steel appliances, custom cabinets and a custom marble tile countertop, fresh paint throughout and a new metal roof. Cozy up by the wood burning fireplace and as the days turn warmer spend your spring afternoons grilling or entertaining on the 10x12 deck. This home is a must see!

Key facts

• 1.4 acres
• Metal roof
• 10x12 deck

Tags

• BRICK RANCH
• METAL ROOF
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• 10X12 DECK
• LAUNDRY ON MAIN LEVEL
• 1.4 ACRES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric heat pump
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1957
• Construction: Wood stove listed as a green/energy-efficient feature
• Exterior features: Front porch; Property sits on approximately 1.4 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump (electric) for heating; Heat pump (electric) for cooling
• Interior features: Built-in microwave oven; Fiberglass doors; Insulated, tilt-in windows; Crawl space basement; One fireplace (wood stove noted as green/energy-efficient)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-594/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#342 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Montgomery County Public School District (urban): math 57% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #47 of 131 in VA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Eastern Montgomery Elementary (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 385 students, 76% FRL); Shawsville Middle (math 41% / reading 56%, grade C-, #244 of 342 statewide, top 72%, 208 students, 74% FRL); Eastern Montgomery High (math 72% / reading 77%, grade B+, #107 of 319 statewide, top 37%, 282 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 32% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 323 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,398 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.30%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $127,487
• Equity at exit: $216,166

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.62×
• Total profit: $377,815
• Equity at exit: $466,170

Cash invested: $67,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24087

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,884 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,357/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,947

Max offer price $231,211

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $86	-5% $18	+0% $-49	+5% $-117	+10% $-185
Rent	-10% $-198	-5% $-124	+0% $-49	+5% $25	+10% $99
Rate	-1.0pp $71	-0.5pp $12	base $-49	+0.5pp $-112	+1.0pp $-175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,988
• Closing costs: $7,198
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,950 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $239,950 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,950 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,950 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,950 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,950 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $239,950 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,950 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $239,950 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $239,950 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    price $239,950 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,950 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,950 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,950 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,950 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,950 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,950 Active 4 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,950 Active 3 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,950 Active 2 DOM
20. 2026-05-28
    listed $249,950 Active
21. 2022-06-21
    soldstatus $184,900 Closed 549-char remark

    Show marketing remark (549 chars)

    This charming brick ranch sitting on a 1.4 acre lot has been completely remodeled and is move in ready! Enjoy peaceful living with views of nature from every window. This home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a brand new beautifully updated kitchen with stainless steel appliances, custom cabinets and a custom marble tile countertop, fresh paint throughout and a new metal roof. Cozy up by the wood burning fireplace and as the days turn warmer spend your spring afternoons grilling or entertaining on the 10x12 deck. This home is a must see!

22. 2022-05-18
    status Pending 549-char remark

    Show marketing remark (549 chars)

    This charming brick ranch sitting on a 1.4 acre lot has been completely remodeled and is move in ready! Enjoy peaceful living with views of nature from every window. This home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a brand new beautifully updated kitchen with stainless steel appliances, custom cabinets and a custom marble tile countertop, fresh paint throughout and a new metal roof. Cozy up by the wood burning fireplace and as the days turn warmer spend your spring afternoons grilling or entertaining on the 10x12 deck. This home is a must see!

23. 2022-05-13
    status Active 549-char remark

    Show marketing remark (549 chars)

    This charming brick ranch sitting on a 1.4 acre lot has been completely remodeled and is move in ready! Enjoy peaceful living with views of nature from every window. This home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a brand new beautifully updated kitchen with stainless steel appliances, custom cabinets and a custom marble tile countertop, fresh paint throughout and a new metal roof. Cozy up by the wood burning fireplace and as the days turn warmer spend your spring afternoons grilling or entertaining on the 10x12 deck. This home is a must see!

24. 2022-05-13
    price $184,900 549-char remark

    Show marketing remark (549 chars)

    This charming brick ranch sitting on a 1.4 acre lot has been completely remodeled and is move in ready! Enjoy peaceful living with views of nature from every window. This home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a brand new beautifully updated kitchen with stainless steel appliances, custom cabinets and a custom marble tile countertop, fresh paint throughout and a new metal roof. Cozy up by the wood burning fireplace and as the days turn warmer spend your spring afternoons grilling or entertaining on the 10x12 deck. This home is a must see!

25. 2022-04-10
    historical 549-char remark

    Show marketing remark (549 chars)

    This charming brick ranch sitting on a 1.4 acre lot has been completely remodeled and is move in ready! Enjoy peaceful living with views of nature from every window. This home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a brand new beautifully updated kitchen with stainless steel appliances, custom cabinets and a custom marble tile countertop, fresh paint throughout and a new metal roof. Cozy up by the wood burning fireplace and as the days turn warmer spend your spring afternoons grilling or entertaining on the 10x12 deck. This home is a must see!

26. 2022-02-17
    listed $174,900 549-char remark

    Show marketing remark (549 chars)

    This charming brick ranch sitting on a 1.4 acre lot has been completely remodeled and is move in ready! Enjoy peaceful living with views of nature from every window. This home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a brand new beautifully updated kitchen with stainless steel appliances, custom cabinets and a custom marble tile countertop, fresh paint throughout and a new metal roof. Cozy up by the wood burning fireplace and as the days turn warmer spend your spring afternoons grilling or entertaining on the 10x12 deck. This home is a must see!

27. 2021-12-08
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,357 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,968 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: +$611/yr (+$51/mo · 45.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,608
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,441
• − Property taxes: −$1,357
• − Insurance: −$1,997
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,809
• − Management: −$1,809
• − Depreciation: −$6,980
• Taxable loss: −$4,785
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,148
• After-tax cash flow: $555/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102520
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,618
• Composite: 53.6/100
• National rank: #1440
• State rank: #47 of 131 in VA

Livability — Elliston

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #13622

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,948

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,748 people
• By 2030: 110,301 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 115,652 · +9.4%
• By 2050: 119,651 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 126,005 · +19.2%
• By 2100: 129,771 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 47.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 4.9pp · 2024: 3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.5 2020: D+5.8 2016: D+1.3 2012: R+0.2 2008: D+4.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.65%
• Current HPI: 258.6535
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+733.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $249,950 MLSRV
• 2022-06-21 Sold (MLS) $184,900 NRVMLS
• 2022-05-18 Pending — NRVMLS
• 2022-05-13 Relisted — NRVMLS
• 2022-05-13 Price Changed $184,900 NRVMLS
• 2022-04-10 Delisted — NRVMLS
• 2022-02-17 Listed $174,900 NRVMLS
• 2021-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,357 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.