319 W Walnut St

Carbondale, IL 62901

$74,900D+

None bd · 4.0 ba · — sqft · Built 1930 · Other · Pending · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $722/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$152
• Net cashflow: $52/mo
• Annual: $630/yr
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.00%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $20,972

Investor read

• This is a ?-bed/4.0-bath other listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($630/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $72k (3.7% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#375 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, crime F, employment F.
• Carbondale Chsd 165 (urban): math 26% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #279 of 620 in IL (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Parrish Elem School (495 students, 0% FRL); Carbondale Middle School (math 5% / reading 14%, grade F, #597 of 665 statewide, top 91%, 446 students, 0% FRL); Carbondale Comm H S (math 26% / reading 35%, grade F, #175 of 693 statewide, top 26%, 997 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 202 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 5 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.8% in Carbondale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.