23240 Cresta Dr

Twain Harte, CA 95383

$120,000B

4 bd · 6.0 ba · 1,936 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,185/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$384
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $713/mo
• Annual: $8,554/yr
• Cap rate: 13.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.46%
• DSCR: 2.13
• 1% rule: 1.82%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/6.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $713 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#260 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute D-, cost of living F.
• Summerville Union High (rural): math 30% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #505 of 1,400 in CA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 2.8% in Twain Harte — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.