23240 Cresta Dr · Twain Harte, CA 95383

$120,000

4 bd · 6.0 ba · 1,936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1962 0.60 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Large home located in the down town Twain Harte area. Close proximity to schools, pool and park. Paved access to the property. enjoy the summer events Twain Hate offers in the community. Many resteraunts, shops and Fire Station with the down town location. This property is subject to a 3-Day First Look Period. Seller will negotiate offers after the period expires. “The seller does not accept blind offers or escalation clauses. ” Please add: "Per CA law, no investor offers accepted, within the first 30 days of listing. "

Key facts

• Paved access
• 0.6 acre lot
• Community pool

Tags

• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO POOL
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO PARK
• PAVED ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property sits on about 0.6 acres
• Financial info: No financial details provided
• HOA & community: Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot (no garage)
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Built in 1962
• Construction: Wood construction; Shingle roof; Total building area approximately 1,936 square feet
• Exterior features: Deck; Community pool; Lot is level, slopes up in places, and is wooded

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen features listed
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: One fireplace with an insert in the family room; Main entry at street level; No additional rooms listed
• Laundry & utility: No laundry or utility details listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/6.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $713 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 2.8% in Twain Harte — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#260 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute D-, cost of living F.
• Summerville Union High (rural): math 30% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #505 of 1,400 in CA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,200 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.46%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $503,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23192 Cresta Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,048 (+6%)	5mo	$400,000	$195	61
18844 Holly Dr	0.10mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,103 (+9%)	3mo	$512,500	$244	58
19160 Middle Camp Sugar Pine Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (-2%)	3mo	$445,000	$234	40
18555 Mono Pass	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,739 (-10%)	8mo	$500,000	$288	37
23532 Lakewood Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (-11%)	14mo	$395,000	$229	35
23500 Middle Camp Rd	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,060 (+6%)	5mo	$499,700	$243	33
22950 Placer Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,695 (-12%)	1mo	$660,000	$389	32
22782 Golf Club Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,816 (-6%)	8mo	$618,750	$341	30
22992 Sierra Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,658 (-14%)	1mo	$649,000	$391	27
23100 Tuolumne Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,646 (-15%)	16mo	$428,000	$260	26
22859 Miners	0.66mi	4/1.5	1,680 (-13%)	13mo	$274,000	$163	19
23779 Fremont Way	0.68mi	4/3.0	1,680 (-13%)	19mo	$460,000	$274	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $26,103
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.43×
• Total profit: $81,786
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95383

• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,185 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$334 /mo · $4,008/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $713

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,283

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $781	-5% $747	+0% $713	+5% $679	+10% $645
Rent	-10% $540	-5% $627	+0% $713	+5% $799	+10% $885
Rate	-1.0pp $773	-0.5pp $743	base $713	+0.5pp $682	+1.0pp $650

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22870 Black Hawk Dr Twain Harte, CA	3.0	2.0	1425	$2,185	$1.53	24d	1	0.51mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $120,000 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 525-char remark
13. 2026-06-01
    remarks 256-char remark
14. 2026-06-01
    listed $120,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,008 · $334/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,008 · $334/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,220
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$4,008
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,098
• − Management: −$2,098
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $7,204
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,729
• After-tax cash flow: $6,825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Summerville Union High
• NCES district ID: 0638280
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,350
• Composite: 42.89/100
• National rank: #6713
• State rank: #505 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Twain Harte

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #260
• US rank: #8670

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment C Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Twain Harte, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,663

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 5% Scotch-Irish 5%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -240.75%
• Current HPI: 137.2564
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $120,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,008 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.