16 Fourth St

Martindale, TX 78656

$145,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Built 2019 · Manufactured · Active · 103 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,861/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$230
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $480/mo
• Annual: $5,765/yr
• Cap rate: 10.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.20%
• DSCR: 1.63
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $480 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#397 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.4%/yr); 325 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-1.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.