16 Fourth St · Martindale, TX 78656

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured public records · 103 Days on market

Built 2019 3,598 sqft lot $127/sqft · 7% above area Est $135k · 7% over ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• ARV discount +4.2/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Qualified buyers may be eligible for 0% down payment on this home! Welcome to Maxwell, Texas, where small-town charm meets affordability. This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home at 16 Fourth Street offers comfortable living space and is the perfect opportunity for a first-time homebuyer or savvy investor. The home features an open-concept layout with farmhouse-inspired finishes that create a warm and inviting atmosphere. The spacious kitchen flows seamlessly into the living and dining areas, making it ideal for everyday living or entertaining. The private primary suite includes a walk-in closet and an oversized bathroom with double vanities, a soaking tub, and a separate walk-in shower. Two additional bedrooms are thoughtfully positioned on a split floorplan for added privacy. Outside, you’ll find a storage shed and covered parking, providing extra convenience and functionality. Located in a commuter-friendly area with quick access to nearby shopping, dining, and outdoor recreation, this property offers the perfect blend of peaceful living and accessibility. With close proximity to Texas State University in nearby San Marcos and Austin Community College, this location also presents strong rental potential, making it an excellent option for investors or anyone looking to take advantage of the area’s growing demand for housing. Whether you're looking for an affordable place to call home or a solid addition to your investment portfolio, this property delivers value, charm, and opportunity.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Oversized bathroom
• Double vanities

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• FARMHOUSE-INSPIRED FINISHES
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OVERSIZED BATHROOM
• DOUBLE VANITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $480 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#397 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.4%/yr); 325 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.20%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $135,000
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: 7.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
155 5th St	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (+10%)	4mo	$135,000	$107	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.02% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $14,084
• Equity at exit: $34,829

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $42,310
• Equity at exit: $36,427

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78656

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.4%
• Active inventory: 325
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,861 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,032/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $480

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,253

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $562	-5% $521	+0% $480	+5% $439	+10% $398
Rent	-10% $333	-5% $407	+0% $480	+5% $554	+10% $627
Rate	-1.0pp $553	-0.5pp $517	base $480	+0.5pp $443	+1.0pp $405

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $145,000 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-04-15
    price $145,000 1527-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1527 chars)

    Qualified buyers may be eligible for 0% down payment on this home! Welcome to Maxwell, Texas, where small-town charm meets affordability. This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home at 16 Fourth Street offers comfortable living space and is the perfect opportunity for a first-time homebuyer or savvy investor. The home features an open-concept layout with farmhouse-inspired finishes that create a warm and inviting atmosphere. The spacious kitchen flows seamlessly into the living and dining areas, making it ideal for everyday living or entertaining. The private primary suite includes a walk-in closet and an oversized bathroom with double vanities, a soaking tub, and a separate walk-in shower. Two additional bedrooms are thoughtfully positioned on a split floorplan for added privacy. Outside, you’ll find a storage shed and covered parking, providing extra convenience and functionality. Located in a commuter-friendly area with quick access to nearby shopping, dining, and outdoor recreation, this property offers the perfect blend of peaceful living and accessibility. With close proximity to Texas State University in nearby San Marcos and Austin Community College, this location also presents strong rental potential, making it an excellent option for investors or anyone looking to take advantage of the area’s growing demand for housing. Whether you're looking for an affordable place to call home or a solid addition to your investment portfolio, this property delivers value, charm, and opportunity.

16. 2026-03-10
    listed $150,000 Active 1527-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1527 chars)

    Qualified buyers may be eligible for 0% down payment on this home! Welcome to Maxwell, Texas, where small-town charm meets affordability. This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home at 16 Fourth Street offers comfortable living space and is the perfect opportunity for a first-time homebuyer or savvy investor. The home features an open-concept layout with farmhouse-inspired finishes that create a warm and inviting atmosphere. The spacious kitchen flows seamlessly into the living and dining areas, making it ideal for everyday living or entertaining. The private primary suite includes a walk-in closet and an oversized bathroom with double vanities, a soaking tub, and a separate walk-in shower. Two additional bedrooms are thoughtfully positioned on a split floorplan for added privacy. Outside, you’ll find a storage shed and covered parking, providing extra convenience and functionality. Located in a commuter-friendly area with quick access to nearby shopping, dining, and outdoor recreation, this property offers the perfect blend of peaceful living and accessibility. With close proximity to Texas State University in nearby San Marcos and Austin Community College, this location also presents strong rental potential, making it an excellent option for investors or anyone looking to take advantage of the area’s growing demand for housing. Whether you're looking for an affordable place to call home or a solid addition to your investment portfolio, this property delivers value, charm, and opportunity.

17. 2026-01-28
    historical
18. 2025-10-23
    price $155,000
19. 2025-08-29
    price $160,000
20. 2025-06-12
    price $165,000
21. 2025-04-25
    price $169,500
22. 2025-03-31
    price $174,500
23. 2025-02-20
    price $176,500
24. 2025-01-27
    listed $180,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,032 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,654 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$621/yr (+$52/mo · 30.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,338
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,032
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,787
• − Management: −$1,787
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $3,666
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$880
• After-tax cash flow: $4,885/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

Livability — Martindale

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #397
• US rank: #8261

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Caldwell County · 25,195 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,847
• Household income: $81,346
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 89.0

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 21% White 20% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 55%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Current HPI: 228.3622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.36%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $145,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $150,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-28 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $155,000 LERA
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $160,000 LERA
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $165,000 LERA
• 2025-04-25 Price Changed $169,500 LERA
• 2025-03-31 Price Changed $174,500 LERA
• 2025-02-20 Price Changed $176,500 LERA
• 2025-01-27 Listed $180,000 LERA

Property tax history

+27.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,032 · -3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.