2450 Vista Hogar

Newport Beach, CA 92660

$1,090,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,260 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,912/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,716
• Tax + insurance: −$1,150
• HOA: −$435
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,242
• Net cashflow: $-2,630/mo
• Annual: $-31,559/yr
• Cap rate: 3.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.34%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $305,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $1.09M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-32k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $625k (42.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $591k (45.8% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.02M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $591k (45.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $117k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $109k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#101 in CA, #3,645 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Newport-Mesa Unified (urban): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #106 of 517 in CA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 157 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $200k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $699k; list at $1.09M implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$187k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 0.6% in Newport Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($160k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?