2450 Vista Hogar · Newport Beach, CA 92660

$1,090,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1965 1,290 sqft lot $865/sqft · 21% below area Est $1371k · 21% under $435/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 2450 Vista Hogar, a beautifully refreshed 3-bedroom residence tucked within The Bluffs of Newport Beach, one of the most sought-after enclaves along the California coast. This darling home blends comfort, style, and coastal living with a fresh look updated in 2023. The remodeled kitchen and baths offer modern finishes, generous cabinetry, and clean lines that create a bright, functional flow. Upstairs, the primary suite provides privacy and space, complemented by two additional bedrooms, all enhanced by brand-new interior paint throughout. Enjoy a private patio that extends your living area outdoors, perfect for relaxing or entertaining, along with a conveniently attached two-car garage offering easy access and ample storage. Conveniently located near vibrant coastal shopping and dining at Fashion Island, scenic Back Bay trails, top-performing schools, and Newport’s iconic beaches, this home captures the essence of the coveted seaside lifestyle. Move-in ready and full of character, 2450 Vista Hogar is the perfect blend of comfort, convenience and coastal charm.

Key facts

• Newport beaches
• Attached garage
• Remodeled kitchen

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PATIO
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• TOP-PERFORMING SCHOOLS
• NEWPORT BEACHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $1.09M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-32k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $625k (42.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $591k (45.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $591k (45.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 0.6% in Newport Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#101 in CA, #3,645 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Newport-Mesa Unified (urban): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #106 of 517 in CA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 157 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($160k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $117k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $109k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$187k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.02M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $200k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $699k; list at $1.09M implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $591,232 (45.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.34%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 15.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,371,459
• List price: $1,090,000
• Delta: -10.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2225 Vista Huerta	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,260 (0%)	3mo	$1,250,000	$992	88
2209 Vista Huerta	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,260 (0%)	3mo	$1,450,000	$1,151	84
2326 Vista Hogar	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,382 (+10%)	20mo	$1,580,000	$1,143	61
2005 Barranca	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,184 (-6%)	8mo	$1,300,000	$1,098	54
303 Esperanza	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,447 (+15%)	14mo	$415,006	$287	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $432,762
• Equity at exit: $981,958

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.65×
• Total profit: $1,420,206
• Equity at exit: $2,117,630

Cash invested: $305,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92660

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 15.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,912 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,716
• Tax from tax record: −$695 /mo · $8,345/yr
• Insurance: −$454
• HOA: −$435
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,242
• Net cashflow: $-2,630

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,241

Max offer price $625,408

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,013	-5% $-2,321	+0% $-2,630	+5% $-2,938	+10% $-3,247
Rent	-10% $-3,097	-5% $-2,863	+0% $-2,630	+5% $-2,396	+10% $-2,163
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,081	-0.5pp $-2,353	base $-2,630	+0.5pp $-2,912	+1.0pp $-3,200

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $272,500
• Closing costs: $32,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
624 Hilvanar Newport Beach, CA	3.0	2.0	1128	$7,500	$6.65	20d	1	0.08mi
2316 Vista Hogar Newport Beach, CA	3.0	2.0	1342	$4,600	$3.43	25d	1	0.08mi
554 Glorieta Newport Beach, CA	3.0	2.0	1547	$5,900	$3.81	25d	1	0.13mi
456 Vista Trucha Newport Beach, CA	3.0	2.5	1850	$7,300	$3.95	22d	1	0.20mi
2620 Vista del Oro Newport Beach, CA	3.0	2.0	1434	$5,250	$3.66	45d	1	0.32mi
430 Vista Suerte Newport Beach, CA	3.0	2.5	1473	$5,500	$3.73	4d	1	0.32mi
2632 Vista del Oro Newport Beach, CA	4.0	2.5	1700	$6,200	$3.65	5d	1	0.35mi
2632 Vista del Oro Newport Beach, CA	4.0	2.5	1700	$6,700	$3.94	25d	1	0.35mi
1970 San Bruno Newport Beach, CA	3.0	2.0	1342	$5,595	$4.17	25d	1	0.45mi
1970 San Bruno Newport Beach, CA	3.0	2.0	1342	$5,200	$3.87	0d	1	0.45mi
302 Esplanade Newport Beach, CA	3.0	2.0	1600	$12,000	$7.50	18d	1	0.45mi
253 Chesterfield #145 Newport Beach, CA	3.0	3.0	1741	$5,100	$2.93	0d	1	0.46mi
85 Seaborough #44 Newport Beach, CA	2.0	2.0	1181	$5,000	$4.23	45d	1	0.54mi
114 Corsica Dr Newport Beach, CA	2.0	2.0	920	$4,100	$4.46	9d	1	0.73mi
71 Corsica Dr Newport Beach, CA	2.0	2.0	1149	$4,895	$4.26	25d	1	0.75mi
1 Park Newport Newport Beach, CA	3.0	1.0–2.5	1013	$5,173	$5.10	0d	117	0.85mi
100 Vilaggio Newport Beach, CA	3.0	1.0–2.5	1011	$6,210	$6.14	0d	1	1.02mi
2 Milano Dr Newport Beach, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1008	$5,080	$5.04	0d	19	1.03mi
2500 Baypointe Dr Newport Beach, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$4,680	$4.61	3d	16	1.03mi
1000 San Joaquin Plz Newport Beach, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1146	$8,865	$7.73	0d	32	1.09mi
605 Bay Hill Dr Newport Beach, CA	3.0	2.5	1801	$7,000	$3.89	21d	1	1.10mi
20092 Bayview Ave Newport Beach, CA	3.0	1.0	1162	$4,950	$4.26	45d	1	1.26mi
5100 Colony Plz Newport Beach, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1316	$6,435	$4.89	0d	10	1.29mi
2522 University Dr Newport Beach, CA	2.0	2.0	1287	$5,500	$4.27	45d	1	1.30mi
341 Riviera Dr Costa Mesa, CA	3.0	2.5	1573	$5,295	$3.37	45d	1	1.34mi
2350 Santa Ana Ave Costa Mesa, CA	3.0	2.0	912	$3,850	$4.22	45d	1	1.40mi
419 Gloucester Dr Costa Mesa, CA	2.0	2.0	1064	$3,100	$2.91	9d	1	1.41mi
345 University Dr Unit D2 Costa Mesa, CA	3.0	2.5	1450	$4,200	$2.90	45d	1	1.42mi
2474 Santa Ana Ave Costa Mesa, CA	3.0	2.0	1228	$5,495	$4.47	22d	1	1.43mi
335 University Dr Costa Mesa, CA	3.0	2.0	1594	$8,895	$5.58	0d	1	1.45mi
2662 Riverside Dr Costa Mesa, CA	3.0	1.0	1461	$5,750	$3.94	9d	1	1.45mi
10 Rue Grand Vallee Newport Beach, CA	2.0	2.0	1809	$11,000	$6.08	25d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $435 · $5,220/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $1,090,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,229,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,229,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,229,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,229,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,229,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,229,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,229,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,229,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,229,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,229,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,229,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,229,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,229,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,229,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-04-21
    listed $1,290,000 Active 1094-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1094 chars)

    Welcome to 2450 Vista Hogar, a beautifully refreshed 3-bedroom residence tucked within The Bluffs of Newport Beach, one of the most sought-after enclaves along the California coast. This darling home blends comfort, style, and coastal living with a fresh look updated in 2023. The remodeled kitchen and baths offer modern finishes, generous cabinetry, and clean lines that create a bright, functional flow. Upstairs, the primary suite provides privacy and space, complemented by two additional bedrooms, all enhanced by brand-new interior paint throughout. Enjoy a private patio that extends your living area outdoors, perfect for relaxing or entertaining, along with a conveniently attached two-car garage offering easy access and ample storage. Conveniently located near vibrant coastal shopping and dining at Fashion Island, scenic Back Bay trails, top-performing schools, and Newport’s iconic beaches, this home captures the essence of the coveted seaside lifestyle. Move-in ready and full of character, 2450 Vista Hogar is the perfect blend of comfort, convenience and coastal charm.

17. 2021-05-12
    soldstatus $699,000
18. 2021-03-26
    historical
19. 2020-12-22
    price $689,000
20. 2020-12-01
    listed $699,000 Active
21. 2020-11-03
    soldstatus $560,000
22. 2020-10-30
    soldstatus $470,000 Closed Sale
23. 2020-09-23
    status Pending Sale
24. 2020-09-14
    status Pending Sale
25. 2020-09-12
    historical $499,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,345 · $695/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,345 · $695/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥86°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $70,948
• − Mortgage interest: −$61,057
• − Property taxes: −$8,345
• − Insurance: −$5,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,676
• − Management: −$5,676
• − HOA: −$5,220
• − Depreciation: −$31,709
• Taxable loss: −$52,185
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$12,524
• After-tax cash flow: $-19,035/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newport-Mesa Unified
• NCES district ID: 0627240
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,922
• Composite: 47.64/100
• National rank: #2248
• State rank: #106 of 517 in CA

Livability — Newport Beach

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #3645

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newport Beach, CA
• County: Orange County · 3,096,323 people
• City population: 83,845
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 34,890
• Household income: $159,564
• Rent vs Own: 50.8% rent · 49.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2633.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 9% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 5% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.65%
• Current HPI: 537.8751
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.11%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+158.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $1,290,000 CRMLS
• 2021-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $699,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2020-12-22 Price Changed $689,000 CRMLS
• 2020-12-01 Listed $699,000 CRMLS
• 2020-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $560,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-30 Sold (MLS) $470,000 CRMLS
• 2020-09-23 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-09-14 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-09-12 Coming Soon $499,990 CRMLS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,345 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.