237 4th Ave

Newcastle, WY 82701

$98,000B-

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,050 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Active · 127 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,208/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax + insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $329/mo
• Annual: $3,947/yr
• Cap rate: 10.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.38%
• DSCR: 1.64
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $27,440

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $98k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $329 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $86k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $678 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#25 in WY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, commute D, amenities F.
• Weston County School District #1 (town): math 46% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #23 of 41 in WY (top 56%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP.
• Weston County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.