237 4th Ave · Newcastle, WY 82701

$98,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1962 8,971 sqft lot $48/sqft · 66% below area ↓ 47% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This in-town Newcastle home offers surprising space with 5 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms within a 2,050sq ft layout. The flexible floor plan provides plenty of options for larger households, home offices, or guest rooms. Conveniently located in the city, this property offers a great opportunity for buyers looking for functional living space with easy access to local amenities.

Key facts

• 8,971 sq ft lot
• Built 1962
• Listed 126 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $329 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#25 in WY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, commute D, amenities F.
• Weston County School District #1 (town): math 46% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #23 of 41 in WY (top 56%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $678 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weston County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.38%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $285,821
• List price: $98,000
• Delta: -65.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 2nd Ave	0.20mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,208 (+8%)	20mo	$280,000	$127	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $5,054
• Equity at exit: $14,612

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $31,318
• Equity at exit: $8,473

Cash invested: $27,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Wyoming: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+25
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable; small market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 82701

• Home prices YoY: -29.3%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,208 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $843/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $329

Break-even live

Break-even rent $791

Max offer price $98,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $384	-5% $357	+0% $329	+5% $301	+10% $273
Rent	-10% $234	-5% $281	+0% $329	+5% $377	+10% $424
Rate	-1.0pp $378	-0.5pp $354	base $329	+0.5pp $304	+1.0pp $278

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,500
• Closing costs: $2,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $98,000 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,000 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $98,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $98,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $98,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $98,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $98,000 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $98,000 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $98,000 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $98,000 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $98,000 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $98,000 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $98,000 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $98,000 Active 107 DOM
17. 2026-04-17
    price $98,000 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    This in-town Newcastle home offers surprising space with 5 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms within a 2,050sq ft layout. The flexible floor plan provides plenty of options for larger households, home offices, or guest rooms. Conveniently located in the city, this property offers a great opportunity for buyers looking for functional living space with easy access to local amenities.

18. 2026-02-13
    price $140,000 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    This in-town Newcastle home offers surprising space with 5 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms within a 2,050sq ft layout. The flexible floor plan provides plenty of options for larger households, home offices, or guest rooms. Conveniently located in the city, this property offers a great opportunity for buyers looking for functional living space with easy access to local amenities.

19. 2026-02-12
    listed $183,200 Active 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    This in-town Newcastle home offers surprising space with 5 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms within a 2,050sq ft layout. The flexible floor plan provides plenty of options for larger households, home offices, or guest rooms. Conveniently located in the city, this property offers a great opportunity for buyers looking for functional living space with easy access to local amenities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $843 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $843 · $70/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,490
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,490
• − Property taxes: −$843
• − Insurance: −$490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,159
• − Management: −$1,159
• − Depreciation: −$2,851
• Taxable income: $2,498
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$600
• After-tax cash flow: $3,347/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weston County School District #1
• NCES district ID: 5604830
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,016
• Composite: 44.28/100
• National rank: #2837
• State rank: #23 of 41 in WY

Livability — Newcastle

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #6532

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newcastle, WY
• Population (ZIP): 5,411

Population outlook (Weston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,266 people
• By 2030: 7,244 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 7,060 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 6,822 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 6,485 · -10.7%
• By 2100: 5,512 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Weston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.0) · D 10.8% · R 87.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: -57.8pp · 2024: -77.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.0 2020: R+77.6 2016: R+78.1 2012: R+72.2 2008: R+57.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.16%
• Current HPI: 150.2108
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-46.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $98,000 NEWRA
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $140,000 NEWRA
• 2026-02-12 Listed $183,200 NEWRA

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $843 · -25.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.