10401 Carriage Rd

New Kent, VA 23140

$313,000C-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,585 sqft · Built 1967 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,550/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,641
• Tax + insurance: −$336
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $37/mo
• Annual: $444/yr
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.51%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $87,640

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $313k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($444/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (18.5% below list).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($294k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $255k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#230 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• New Kent County Public School District (rural): math 58% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #32 of 131 in VA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: New Kent Elementary (math 55% / reading 74%, grade B, #416 of 1,108 statewide, top 41%, 615 students, 34% FRL); New Kent Middle (math 51% / reading 68%, grade B, #160 of 342 statewide, top 48%, 770 students, 28% FRL); New Kent High (math 66% / reading 82%, grade B+, #120 of 319 statewide, top 38%, 1,120 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 453 units permitted in New Kent County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New Kent County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $250k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 49% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 1.8% in New Kent — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.