10401 Carriage Rd · New Kent, VA 23140

$313,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,585 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1967 5.59 ac lot $197/sqft · 22% below area Est $400k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring your vision and unlock the incredible potential of this 3-bedroom, 3-bath brick split-level home situated on 5.5 beautiful acres. Offering 1,585 square feet and a walkout basement, this property has already had the heavy lifting started with the home fully cleaned out and ready for the next owner to bring it back to life. The layout provides a solid foundation for renovation while the expansive acreage opens the door for endless possibilities. Whether you are looking to create your dream homestead, renovate for resale, or add value as an investment, the potential here is truly remarkable. Outside, you will find a circular driveway for easy access, along with an additional drive that leads to the rear of the property, making it convenient for equipment, future buildings, or recreational use. With plenty of room for a barn, horses, gardens, or additional outbuildings, this property offers the space and flexibility many buyers are searching for. Opportunities like this do not come along often. Bring your ideas and make this property shine again. Call today to schedule your private showing!

Key facts

• Expansive acreage
• Walkout basement
• Room for a barn

Tags

• WALKOUT BASEMENT
• CIRCULAR DRIVEWAY
• EXPANSIVE ACREAGE
• ROOM FOR A BARN
• SPACE FOR GARDENS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $313k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($444/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 1.8% in New Kent — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#230 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• New Kent County Public School District (rural): math 58% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #32 of 131 in VA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: New Kent Elementary (math 55% / reading 74%, grade B, #416 of 1,108 statewide, top 41%, 615 students, 34% FRL); New Kent Middle (math 51% / reading 68%, grade B, #160 of 342 statewide, top 48%, 770 students, 28% FRL); New Kent High (math 66% / reading 82%, grade B+, #120 of 319 statewide, top 38%, 1,120 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 453 units permitted in New Kent County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• New Kent County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($294k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $250k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 49% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,003 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.51%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $399,795
• List price: $313,000
• Delta: -21.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-48,438
• Equity at exit: $46,669

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-39,452
• Equity at exit: $27,063

Cash invested: $87,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23140

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,641
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,468/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,503

Max offer price $313,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $214	-5% $126	+0% $37	+5% $-52	+10% $-140
Rent	-10% $-164	-5% $-64	+0% $37	+5% $138	+10% $238
Rate	-1.0pp $195	-0.5pp $117	base $37	+0.5pp $-44	+1.0pp $-127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,250
• Closing costs: $9,390
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-03-09
   listed $313,000 Active 1109-char remark

   Show marketing remark (964 chars)

   Bring your vision and unlock the incredible potential of this 3-bedroom, 3-bath brick split-level home situated on 5.5 beautiful acres. Offering 1,585 square feet and a walkout basement, this property has already had the heavy lifting started, with the home fully cleaned out and ready for the next owner to bring it back to life. The layout provides a solid foundation for renovation, while the expansive acreage opens the door for endless possibilities. Whether you are looking to create your dream homestead, renovate for resale, or add value as an investment, the potential here is truly remarkable. Outside, you will find a circular driveway for easy access, along with an additional drive that leads to the rear of the property, making it convenient for equipment, future buildings, or recreational use. With plenty of room for a barn, horses, gardens, or additional outbuildings, this property offers the space and flexibility many buyers are searching for.

2. 2026-03-09
   listed $313,000 Active 964-char remark

   Show marketing remark (964 chars)

   Bring your vision and unlock the incredible potential of this 3-bedroom, 3-bath brick split-level home situated on 5.5 beautiful acres. Offering 1,585 square feet and a walkout basement, this property has already had the heavy lifting started, with the home fully cleaned out and ready for the next owner to bring it back to life. The layout provides a solid foundation for renovation, while the expansive acreage opens the door for endless possibilities. Whether you are looking to create your dream homestead, renovate for resale, or add value as an investment, the potential here is truly remarkable. Outside, you will find a circular driveway for easy access, along with an additional drive that leads to the rear of the property, making it convenient for equipment, future buildings, or recreational use. With plenty of room for a barn, horses, gardens, or additional outbuildings, this property offers the space and flexibility many buyers are searching for.

3. 2026-03-09
   listed $313,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (964 chars)

   Bring your vision and unlock the incredible potential of this 3-bedroom, 3-bath brick split-level home situated on 5.5 beautiful acres. Offering 1,585 square feet and a walkout basement, this property has already had the heavy lifting started, with the home fully cleaned out and ready for the next owner to bring it back to life. The layout provides a solid foundation for renovation, while the expansive acreage opens the door for endless possibilities. Whether you are looking to create your dream homestead, renovate for resale, or add value as an investment, the potential here is truly remarkable. Outside, you will find a circular driveway for easy access, along with an additional drive that leads to the rear of the property, making it convenient for equipment, future buildings, or recreational use. With plenty of room for a barn, horses, gardens, or additional outbuildings, this property offers the space and flexibility many buyers are searching for.

4. 2025-01-08
   soldstatus $250,000
5. 2024-12-23
   status Under Contract
6. 2024-11-14
   listed $325,000 Active
7. 2024-11-14
   historical
8. 2024-11-08
   price $325,000
9. 2024-08-12
   listed $375,000 Active
10. 2006-08-22
    soldstatus $200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,468 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,567 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$98/yr (+$8/mo · 4.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 49% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,533
• − Property taxes: −$2,468
• − Insurance: −$1,565
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,448
• − Management: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$9,105
• Taxable loss: −$4,967
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,192
• After-tax cash flow: $1,636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Kent County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102610
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $72,460
• Composite: 57.73/100
• National rank: #1055
• State rank: #32 of 131 in VA

Livability — New Kent

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #7768

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,533

Population outlook (New Kent County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,555 people
• By 2030: 26,549 · +8.1%
• By 2040: 30,259 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 33,471 · +36.3%
• By 2075: 41,261 · +68.0%
• By 2100: 44,339 · +80.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 23% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · New Kent

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.9) · D 33.7% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -28.9pp · 2024: -31.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+37.6 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.37%
• Current HPI: 171.5574
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+56.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listed $313,000 WMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $313,000 REINMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $313,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2024-12-23 Pending — REINMLS
• 2024-11-14 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2024-11-14 Listed $325,000 REINMLS
• 2024-11-08 Price Changed $325,000 REINMLS
• 2024-08-12 Listed $375,000 REINMLS
• 2006-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,468 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.