108 N Mustang Run --

Casa Grande, AZ 85122

$221,910D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,533 sqft · Built 2025 · Manufactured · Active · 146 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,251/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,164
• Tax + insurance: −$370
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $245/mo
• Annual: $2,940/yr
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.73%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $62,135

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $222k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $222k).
• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($195k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $195k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#220 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cottonwood Elementary School (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,109 statewide, top 96%, 451 students, 89% FRL); Casa Grande Middle School (math 7% / reading 12%, grade F, #197 of 218 statewide, top 91%, 645 students, 84% FRL); Casa Grande Union High School (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #217 of 381 statewide, top 57%, 2,132 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 632 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.0% in Casa Grande — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Exterior framing — Exposed framing indicates structural damage
• Major: Roof — Exposed framing indicates no roof
• Major: Flooring — Exposed framing indicates no flooring
• Major: Interior framing — Exposed framing indicates no walls
• Major: Systems — No visible systems