108 N Mustang Run -- · Casa Grande, AZ 85122

$221,910

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,533 sqft · Manufactured · 145 Days on market

Built 2025 Poor condition 5,040 sqft lot Est $210k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

55 + RESORT ACTIVE ADULT COMMUNITY 7500 SF FT CLUBHOUSE HEATED COMMUNITY POOL WITH SPA BOCC BALL COURTS 2 PICKLE BALL COURTS 4 OUTDOOR GRILLS FITNESS CENTER DOG PARK

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Pickle ball courts
• 7500 sf ft clubhouse

Tags

• 7500 SF FT CLUBHOUSE
• HEATED COMMUNITY POOL
• BOCC BALL COURTS
• PICKLE BALL COURTS
• OUTDOOR GRILLS
• FITNESS CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Current financing: Conventional
• HOA & community: No association fees; Land lease $450 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2 garage spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: Private water company; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Wood frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Gravel/stone front and back yard; Fenced (other); Heated spa; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Built-in electric oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling
• Interior features: Double vanity; Kitchen island; Full bath in primary bedroom; Laminate counters
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside with washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $222k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $222k).
• Recommended offer: $195k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.0% in Casa Grande — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#220 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cottonwood Elementary School (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,109 statewide, top 96%, 451 students, 89% FRL); Casa Grande Middle School (math 7% / reading 12%, grade F, #197 of 218 statewide, top 91%, 645 students, 84% FRL); Casa Grande Union High School (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #217 of 381 statewide, top 57%, 2,132 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 632 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($195k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,280 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.73%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,021
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
312 E O'neil Dr #128	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,528 (-0%)	14mo	$210,000	$137	80
312 E O'neil Dr #148	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-1%)	18mo	$169,500	$112	78
312 E O'neil Dr #103	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	1mo	$140,000	$104	74
312 E O'neil Dr #129	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,379 (-10%)	19mo	$199,900	$145	63
312 E O'neil Dr #123	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,486 (-3%)	12mo	$189,000	$127	58
312 E O'neil Dr #159	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,486 (-3%)	14mo	$200,000	$135	56
120 W O'neil Dr #84	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-12%)	7mo	$70,000	$52	54
312 E O'neil Dr #157	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,486 (-3%)	21mo	$225,000	$151	51
312 E O'neil Dr #112	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,379 (-10%)	14mo	$189,000	$137	49
312 E O'neil Dr #73	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,379 (-10%)	20mo	$210,000	$152	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-16,636
• Equity at exit: $33,088

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $21,358
• Equity at exit: $19,187

Cash invested: $62,135 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85122

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 632
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,251 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,164
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$277 /mo · $3,329/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,941

Max offer price $221,910

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $398	-5% $322	+0% $245	+5% $168	+10% $92
Rent	-10% $67	-5% $156	+0% $245	+5% $334	+10% $423
Rate	-1.0pp $357	-0.5pp $301	base $245	+0.5pp $188	+1.0pp $129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,478
• Closing costs: $6,657
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1640 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1577	$3,250	$2.06	24d	1	0.28mi
1640 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1577	$3,250	$2.06	26d	1	0.28mi
1640 N Cameron St Unit 1640 Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.5	1577	$3,250	$2.06	26d	1	0.28mi
1642 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.5	1577	$3,250	$2.06	26d	1	0.28mi
1846 N Princeton Ave Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1786	$1,750	$0.98	6d	1	0.32mi
1858 N Center Ave Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	2.0	1146	$1,500	$1.31	26d	1	0.38mi
1775 N Terrace Cir Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,699	$1.04	17d	1	0.46mi
1926 N Avenida de Palmas Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,199	$1.08	24d	3	0.63mi
1620 N Trekell Rd Casa Grande, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1090	$2,640	$2.42	0d	1	0.65mi
1153 E Gabrilla Dr Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1689	$1,795	$1.06	22d	1	0.68mi
1161 E O'Neil Dr Casa Grande, AZ	2.0–4.0	2.0	1144	$1,498	$1.31	1d	13	0.72mi
1936 N Trekell Rd Casa Grande, AZ	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1033	$1,723	$1.67	1d	31	0.82mi
1979 N Vista Ln Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1636	$2,200	$1.34	26d	1	0.91mi
1251 E Jahns Dr Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1810	$1,995	$1.10	1d	1	0.92mi
1584 N Wood St Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1928	$1,800	$0.93	17d	1	0.94mi
1256 E Jahns Dr Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	3.0	2094	$2,199	$1.05	7d	1	0.94mi
541 W Melrose Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1101	$1,600	$1.45	26d	1	0.94mi
1100 N Brown Ave Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,950	$1.21	1d	1	0.98mi
520 W Casa Mirage Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,600	$1.04	6d	1	0.99mi
645 W Jardin Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,650	$1.26	26d	1	1.01mi
2094 N Sweetwater Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,700	$1.34	26d	1	1.09mi
1265 E Kingman St Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1874	$2,099	$1.12	7d	1	1.12mi
1265 E Kingman St Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1874	$2,099	$1.12	1d	1	1.12mi
767 W Barrus Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,695	$1.16	26d	1	1.12mi
736 W Palo Verde Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1810	$3,550	$1.96	26d	1	1.17mi
919 N Gilbert Ave Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1630	$1,850	$1.13	1d	1	1.20mi
1131 E Trinity Pl Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.5	1600	$1,650	$1.03	26d	1	1.22mi
803 W Jardin Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,725	$1.16	6d	1	1.27mi
928 N Pueblo Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,550	$1.19	26d	1	1.33mi
1025 N Menze St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	1.5	1301	$1,695	$1.30	15d	1	1.34mi
776 W Fairlane Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1489	$3,200	$2.15	26d	1	1.36mi
1007 N Menze St Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1539	$1,580	$1.03	7d	1	1.38mi
750 W Torino Pl Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	2007	$3,000	$1.49	1d	1	1.40mi
846 N Pueblo Dr #138 Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1324	$1,700	$1.28	17d	1	1.41mi
845 W Crooked Stick Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1601	$2,000	$1.25	26d	1	1.43mi
1139 E Yucca St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	3.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	26d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $221,910 Active 145 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $221,910 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $221,910 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $221,910 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $221,910 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $221,910 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $221,910 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $221,910 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $221,910 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $221,910 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $221,910 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $221,910 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $221,910 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $221,910 Active 125 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $221,910 Active 124 DOM
16. 2026-01-27
    listed $221,910 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,017
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,430
• − Property taxes: −$3,329
• − Insurance: −$1,110
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,161
• − Management: −$2,161
• − Depreciation: −$6,456
• Taxable loss: −$630
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$151
• After-tax cash flow: $3,092/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home is in a state of disrepair with no exterior, roof, flooring, or interior walls. Extensive renovation is required to make it move-in ready and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior framing — Exposed framing indicates structural damage
• Major Roof — Exposed framing indicates no roof
• Major Flooring — Exposed framing indicates no flooring
• Major Interior framing — Exposed framing indicates no walls
• Major Systems — No visible systems

Value-add opportunities

• Both Complete exterior renovation — New siding, roof, and flooring would significantly improve both resale and rental value
• Both Interior renovation — New walls, flooring, and systems would significantly improve both resale and rental value
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — New landscaping and curb appeal would enhance both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior framing · Exposed framing indicates structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · Exposed framing indicates no roof	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Exposed framing indicates no flooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior framing · Exposed framing indicates no walls	Major	$15,000–50,000
Systems · No visible systems	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Complete exterior renovation — New siding, roof, and flooring would significantly improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Interior renovation — New walls, flooring, and systems would significantly improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — New landscaping and curb appeal would enhance both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Casa Grande

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #21534

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Casa Grande, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 69,701
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 61,624
• Household income: $68,443
• Rent vs Own: 28.6% rent · 71.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1250.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 42% Two or more races 21% Black 4% Native American 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.32%
• Current HPI: 233.148
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-27 Listed $221,910 ARMLS