Hickory III G Plan

Gulf Hills, MS 39564

$386,990D-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,720 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 204 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,142/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,083
• Tax + insurance: −$662
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$660
• Net cashflow: $-263/mo
• Annual: $-3,155/yr
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.84%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $111,208

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $387k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-263 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $359k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $314k (18.8% below list).
• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($341k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $314k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#38 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jackson County School District (rural): math 53% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #10 of 130 in MS (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: St Martin East Elementary School (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #18 of 375 statewide, top 5%, 685 students, 100% FRL); St. Martin Middle School (math 44% / reading 39%, grade F, #53 of 179 statewide, top 30%, 995 students, 100% FRL); St Martin High School (math 65% / reading 49%, grade C, #8 of 197 statewide, top 4%, 1,283 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 1063 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 140d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.5% in Gulf Hills — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $3,142/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.