Hickory III G Plan · Gulf Hills, MS 39564

$386,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,720 sqft · SingleFamily · 203 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

- Open Floor Plan - Five Bedrooms, Three Bathrooms - Recessed Can Lighting in Kitchen & Living Room - Walk-In Pantry - Boot Bench at Garage Entry - Double Master Vanity - Separate Master Shower - Walk-In Master Closet - Brick & Siding Exterior - Covered Rear Porch - Two Car Garage

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Boot bench
• Double master vanity

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• RECESSED CAN LIGHTING
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• BOOT BENCH
• DOUBLE MASTER VANITY
• SEPARATE MASTER SHOWER

🏗️ New construction. The $386,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $397,173.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $387k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-263 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $359k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $314k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $314k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.5% in Gulf Hills — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#38 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jackson County School District (rural): math 53% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #10 of 130 in MS (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: St Martin East Elementary School (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #18 of 375 statewide, top 5%, 685 students, 100% FRL); St. Martin Middle School (math 44% / reading 39%, grade F, #53 of 179 statewide, top 30%, 995 students, 100% FRL); St Martin High School (math 65% / reading 49%, grade C, #8 of 197 statewide, top 4%, 1,283 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 1062 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 139d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,142/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 203 days — a 12% lower offer ($341k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $314,156 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 203 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.84%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $397,173
• List price: $386,990
• Delta: -2.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6001 Salt Bush Dr	0.01mi	5/3.0	2,720 (0%)	1mo	$399,702	$147	99
5712 Fiddlers Pt	0.01mi	5/3.0	2,720 (0%)	2mo	$412,625	$152	98
6016 Penni Ln	0.23mi	5/2.5	2,724 (+0%)	1mo	$364,900	$134	87
5708 Fiddlers Pt	0.02mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,811 (+3%)	1mo	$398,040	$142	86
5801 Tile Fish Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,641 (-3%)	0mo	$388,257	$147	85
11813 Moss Creek Ct	0.02mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,811 (+3%)	2mo	$396,306	$141	85
12000 Windsor Hbr	0.01mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,641 (-3%)	2mo	$404,950	$153	84
6000 Cardona Dr	0.08mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,811 (+3%)	1mo	$402,940	$143	83
6000 Penni Ln	0.27mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,785 (+2%)	1mo	$400,000	$144	76
11648 Talla Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,486 (-9%)	2mo	$405,000	$163	70
11713 Wakeland Ct	0.29mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,368 (-13%)	0mo	$399,000	$168	60
11705 Wakeland Ct	0.31mi	5/3.0	3,110 (+14%)	3mo	$385,000	$124	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-86,312
• Equity at exit: $59,220

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-117,369
• Equity at exit: $34,340

Cash invested: $111,208 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 22 active · 32 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.9 mo (20%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $382,990 ($149/sqft)
• Median days on market: 141 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 39564

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 1062
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,142 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,083
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$496 /mo · $5,958/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$660
• Net cashflow: $-263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,474

Max offer price $359,125

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $12	-5% $-126	+0% $-263	+5% $-400	+10% $-537
Rent	-10% $-511	-5% $-387	+0% $-263	+5% $-139	+10% $-15
Rate	-1.0pp $-63	-0.5pp $-162	base $-263	+0.5pp $-366	+1.0pp $-471

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,293
• Closing costs: $11,915
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11404 Harrison Ct Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.0	2091	$2,850	$1.36	6d	1	0.46mi
107 Surgeres Pl Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.5	2830	$3,400	$1.20	140d	1	0.84mi
1220 Sunset Dr Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	3.0	3485	$3,950	$1.13	139d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $386,990 Active 203 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $386,990 Active 202 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $386,990 Active 201 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $386,990 Active 200 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $386,990 Active 198 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $386,990 Active 197 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $386,990 Active 196 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $386,990 Active 195 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $386,990 Active 194 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $386,990 Active 193 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $386,990 Active 192 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $386,990 Active 191 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $386,990 Active 185 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $386,990 Active 184 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $386,990 Active 183 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $386,990 Active 180 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $386,990 Active 179 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $386,990 Active 178 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $386,990 Active 177 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $386,990 Active 176 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $386,990 Active 175 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $386,990 Active 174 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $386,990 Active 173 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $386,990 Active 172 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $386,990 Active 171 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $386,990 Active 170 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $386,990 Active 169 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $386,990 Active 168 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $386,990 Active 167 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $386,990 Active 166 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $386,990 Active 165 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $386,990 Active 164 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $386,990 Active 163 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $386,990 Active 162 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $386,990 Active 161 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $386,990 Active 160 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $386,990 Active 159 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $386,990 Active 158 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $386,990 Active 157 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $386,990 Active 156 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $386,990 Active 155 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $386,990 Active 154 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $386,990 Active 153 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $386,990 Active 152 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $386,990 Active 149 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $386,990 Active 148 DOM
47. 2026-07-29
    days on market $386,990 Active 147 DOM
48. 2026-07-27
    days on market $386,990 Active 145 DOM
49. 2026-07-25
    days on market $386,990 Active 143 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $386,990 Active 142 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,699
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,248
• − Property taxes: −$5,958
• − Insurance: −$1,986
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,016
• − Management: −$3,016
• − Depreciation: −$11,554
• Taxable loss: −$10,079
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,419
• After-tax cash flow: $-736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good layout and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can attract more buyers and renters ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary St Martin East Elementary School B MS #18/375 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle St. Martin Middle School F MS #53/179 Nat'l #5,602/14,009 High St Martin High School C MS #8/197 Nat'l #4,077/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802160
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,569
• Composite: 43.57/100
• National rank: #2980
• State rank: #10 of 130 in MS

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Gulf Hills

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #7310

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulf Hills, MS
• County: Jackson County · 146,926 people
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 43,240
• Household income: $78,596
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
• Current HPI: 204.2244
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.31%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $386,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-05 Listed $383,990 Zillow