22518 Garrison Dr

California, MD 20619

$349,990D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Coming Soon · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,577/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$372
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $-171/mo
• Annual: $-2,057/yr
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.10%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $97,997

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-171 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $320k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (26.4% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $258k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#127 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hollywood Elementary (math 21% / reading 30%, grade F, #251 of 860 statewide, top 30%, 474 students, 30% FRL); Esperanza Middle (math 18% / reading 41%, grade F, #67 of 225 statewide, top 32%, 875 students, 41% FRL); Great Mills High (math 42% / reading 55%, grade D, #111 of 222 statewide, top 50%, 1,779 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 64 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 32% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $272k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.2% in California — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.